By Barçın Yinanç
The ruling AKP presents the fall of the Assad regime as a success story as well as vindication of its 13-year Syria policy which for many has meant turning the country into a vast migrant camp.
While no one will shed tears for the departure of the Assad dynasty, experts warn about the risks ahead in Syria.
So far, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has given the right messages to domestic and international audiences. Yet HTS represents only a small fraction of the Sunni Syrians and other groups might increasingly challenge it.
In addition, suspicions as to what degree the militant group has changed its ideology are justified in terms of its past jihadist roots, according to experts.
The Turkish opposition, on the other hand, is finding it difficult to formulate a clear strategy on Syria and the Middle East in general.
Özgür Özel, the leader of the CHP, was ridiculed when he called on the government to reach out to Bashar Assad less than 24 hours before he fled the country, although, at the time of his call, it was apparent that his regime was crumbling.
As the main party supported by the Alevis in Turkey, the CHP came under pressure from the Alevi community in the Hatay region on the border who have relatives in Syria.
Fearing that Alawites in Syria could be targeted by the country’s new Sunni rulers, Alevis in Hatay asked the CHP to pressure the government to keep borders open to their ethnic kin fleeing Syria. But they could not prove major retaliation was taking place against Alawites in Syria. Despite the lack of evidence, CHP voters' insistence on a proposal to establish a corridor between Hatay and Latakia to enable Alawites to flee Syria contradicts the main opposition’s policy of keeping doors closed to new refugees.
CHP NEEDS TO PICK THE RIGHT BATTLES
“The AKP has deciphered the codes of the Middle East. Problems are solved between intelligence agencies. The AKP has adopted the Turkish system to the system in the Middle East. Intelligence people prefer to deal with other intelligence people rather than diplomats,” according to a retired ambassador.
Turkey’s former chief of intelligence Hakan Fidan has lately shown a shining performance as foreign minister, making it difficult for the opposition to criticize him.
“The AKP has a very strong standing among some groups in the Middle East, you can not compete with it,” argued the same diplomat who served as ambassador in the region.
Özel has not yet fulfilled pledges to visit Palestine or go to Syria to meet with Assad. Yet experts had always advised against such “visits in the Middle East.”
There’s a strong possibility that groups close to the AKP like Hamas could manipulate those visits, which could backfire on the image of the Turkish opposition. At any rate, in several instances, the AKP prevented some of these planned visits from taking place.
Özel could not go to Palestine and the visit of a delegation from the Union of Turkish Municipalities (TBB), which came under the control of the CHP following the municipal elections, to Syria was canceled at the last moment.
After the delegation received the green light from the Foreign Ministry and arranged all formalities, the office of the governor of Damascus canceled the appointment, telling the TBB officials that they wanted the visit to take place after Erdoğan visited Damascus.
“The opposition should pick the right battles. It should continue to focus on the refugees; and for instance, question whether HTS members were given Turkish citizenship,” said the former diplomat.
NEW CHALLENGES
While the opposition is in disarray and finds it difficult to score points in foreign policy, the government faces several challenges in the Middle East.
Experts believe a new order is being shaped in the region and Israel as well as the Gulf countries will be key actors. The lack of political dialogue between Turkey and Israel due to the former’s disproportionate pro-Hamas stance is weakening the hand of Ankara, according to experts.
In addition, an “Islamist movement” that toppled a dictatorship in Syria remains an issue of concern for Gulf countries as well as Egypt and Jordan. An axis between Israel and the Gulf countries against Turkey should worry Ankara, according to experts.
It remains to be seen to what degree Fidan’s discourse that Turkey will not be a master to the Syrian regime will be convincing. Following a visit by Jordan’s foreign minister, defense minister, and chief of intelligence to Ankara, Fidan is headed to Ryad for bilateral talks.
