By Hakan Okçal
The Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, 2023 gave Netanyahu a golden opportunity to eliminate Israel’s adversaries in the region.
Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard nestled in Syria and Lebanon as well as its affiliates in Iraq were either annihilated one after another. When Bashar al-Assad was toppled by a token HTS force led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, there was only one remaining bastion: Iran.
Controversially, Turkey played a key role in the toppling of the Assad regime. There was almost a palpable euphoria within the Turkish government when Assad fled. But it soon subsided as Israel gained the upper hand in Syria.
UNREACHED GOALS
None of Turkey’s priorities seem to have materialised in Syria, let alone the prime objective of getting rid of the Kurdish entity in the north-east that has been dominated by the PKK’s affiliate PYD/YPG. To Turkey’s dismay, Israel now has a bigger say in the military situation in Syria. Turkey’s leadership, as well as its top brass, failed to understand this reality.
Since the Oct. 7 attacks, I have maintained that Israel’s operations were geared to a direct confrontation with Iran. The Iranian threat became existential for Israel when it embarked on its nuclear program more than two decades ago. No Israeli government would possibly tolerate a hostile Iran obtaining nuclear arms. What hindered Israel from a massive attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier was the belief in the West that the Iranian nuclear program could be controlled through an international agreement.
Trump’s ascendance to power a second time changed things who always saw the nuclear deal as a dangerous concession. Indeed, according to the IAEA’s recent report, Iran is very close to obtaining enough enriched material to build a nuclear bomb. Iran had to engage with Trump's representatives in direct talks to appease him. According to Trump, Iran was given 60 days to find a negotiated solution. Disillusioned with Iran's attitude he gave the green light for Israel’s attacks on the 61st day.
IRAN’S RESISTANCE
Israel, thanks to its intelligence prowess, killed almost all the top Iranian military, revolutionary guard, intelligence and nuclear science leaders in surgical operations. It destroyed much of the Iranian air defence system as well as its air force. Israeli war planes have been dominating Iranian skies since the first days of the war. This once-prosperous, oil-producing country is rapidly descending to a point where it can face food and oil shortages.
However, Iran still manages to put up resistance. Iranian ballistic missiles have penetrated the Israeli “Iron Dome” defence system and wrought havoc in many cities. But these haphazard strikes are no match for Israel's surgical attacks on carefully selected Iranian nerve centres. If Iran’s oil industry still operates, it was Israel’s choice not to disrupt international markets.
The only important target that Israel could not hit was in Fordow, the uranium enrichment facility buried deep under a mountain near the holy city of Qom. Donald Trump’s order to strike Fordow together with other two Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natanz was a calculated move to curtail Israel’s military campaign.
Whether Iran’s facilities were as severely damaged as the American claims is yet to be established. There is also speculation that a considerable amount of enriched uranium was moved from Fordow to a secure location. In that case we may be looking at an extended crisis.
The Iranians let the Americans know about its measured response so that casualties could be avoided. This was a clear message that Iran did not desire further escalation. Trump seized the opportunity and happily announced that he brokered a ceasefire, which is hard to believe when one considers Netanyahu’s declared position that Israel will continue its operations until it reaches its goal. However, as fragile as it might be, the ceasefire seems to be holding for the time being. If the U.S. and Iran can agree on a nuclear settlement there could be a chance for peace. However, Israel will be waiting for a pretext to restart its military campaign.
Israel's real goal has always been regime change in Iran. A regime change cannot be achieved solely using missiles and airplanes. A regime change can only happen if the vast majority of the population rises up. That is why the Afghanistan and Iraq attempts backfired even though there were boots on the ground.
My humble expectation is that Netanyahu will do everything in his power to help the Iranian masses to stand up for their rights. Whether the Iranian people will revolt under conditions created by Israel remains to be seen. In any case, a disintegration of Iran along ethnic lines is highly unlikely given the fact that the Iranian nation managed to stick together for millennia.
CONTRADICTIONS FOR ANKARA
A peaceful regime change in Iran would be a perfect outcome for both Turkey and the entire region, heralding the end of political Islam started by the so-called Iranian revolution. Turkey cannot benefit from a battered and destabilised Iran. Iran’s every weakness will pour into Turkey in the form of instability, terror and refugees. This is a bitter lesson learned from the Iraqi and Syrian experiences.
On the other hand, a non-nuclear Iran will be in Turkey’s favor. Turkey is better equipped than any other international player to contribute to a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear problem. Erdoğan’s good relations with both Trump, Hamaney and Pezeshkian can be an asset for a diplomatic breakthrough. In fact, Turkey and Brazil tried to broker a settlement between the West and Iran in the past when Ankara offered to act as a custodian for the Iranian enriched material. Such an offer may prove useful for both parties again. At any rate, with or without Turkey, diplomacy should be given a real chance.
