By Barçın Yinanç
In contrast to Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s positive messages following the EU - Turkey High-Level Economic Dialogue, the meeting, which took place after a six-year hiatus, ended without a substantial road map to revive relations.
As developments in transatlantic relations appeared to be raising Turkey’s value as a geostrategic asset, Ankara hoped to seize the opportunity to improve relations with the EU. Yet, European enthusiasm towards Turkey’s military strength remained limited, while the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has made life difficult for those favoring a speedier rapprochement.
“We still favor a better engagement with Turkey. But the package on offer will be limited. The approach will be based on ‘more for more’,” said an EU official, warning that Ankara can only expect improvement in relations on condition of undertaking steps to reverse democratic backsliding.
“There is not even a package,” a Turkish official told me. Updating the customs union or visa liberalisation are not even on the agenda, according to the EU official who met a group of journalists in Istanbul.
CYPRUS BLUNDER
Meanwhile, the appointment of an ambassador to Greek Cyprus for the first time by three Central Asian republics represented a serious setback for Turkish diplomacy. The recent move by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan was followed by the first summit between the leaders of the EU and the five countries of Central Asia, which took place in Samarkand on April 4.
Turkey had put tremendous pressure on the Central Asian republics to accord observer status to Turkish Cyprus in the Organization of Turkic States. While the republics yielded to pressure and accepted Turkish Cyprus as an observer in 2022, they then came under pressure from the EU, which conditioned engagement on altering their stance on Cyprus.
The decision to accredit envoys to Greek Cyprus is a real diplomatic humiliation for Turkey since it comes from countries with which it enjoys special affinity. Fearing a “Russian comeback” in case of a ceasefire in Ukraine, the Central Asian republics are taking a pragmatic stance and seeking closer engagement with Europe.
Turkish diplomacy remained muted, even refraining from reacting with some diplomatic finesse.
UNPRECEDENTED RESTRAINT ON ISRAEL
On the Middle Eastern front, Turkey appears to have endorsed unprecedented restraint in its rhetoric vis-à-vis the Netanyahu government’s policy in Syria.
Israel’s military strikes last week targeted bases where Turkey was reportedly planning to deploy military forces. Ankara is currently negotiating a joint defence pact with Syria’s new ruler Al -Sharaa who is expected to come to Turkey for the Antalya Diplomacy Forum this weekend.
Pro-government news outlets reported last week that Ankara had started preparations to take control of two military bases in Syria.
Israel did not hide its intentions. Israeli officials told the press the strikes “intended to send a clear message to Turkey not to interfere with Israeli aerial operations in Syrian airspace.”
While the Turkish Foreign Ministry accused Israel of being a regional destabilizer, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made sure in repeated statements to the press that Turkey did not seek confrontation with Israel.
The two countries have clashing interests in Syria. “While Tel Aviv wants a weak Syria, Ankara is working to strengthen Damascus and build a cohesive national army. With such diametrically opposed strategies, a clash between the two seems inevitable,” wrote former diplomat Ömer Önhon.
Fidan revealed that Turkey and Israel have been conducting technical-level talks to avoid potential clashes in Syria. Azerbaijan confirmed its role as a mediator in the process. Despite these efforts, the risk of an incident spiraling into an unintended military confrontation remains serious. (Check Foreign Affairs for more)
U.S. President Donald Trump offered to mediate between Israeli Prime Minister and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the former’s visit to the Oval Office.
Trump showered praise on Erdoğan, calling him “very smart.” The U.S. president said he could solve the problems between the two leaders provided Netanyahu acted “reasonably.”
The fact that Trump talked of Gaza as an “incredible real estate” during the same meeting leaves little room for the AKP to rejoice over his praise for Erdoğan.
On the contrary, the opposition uses Trump’s repeated praise of Erdoğan against him.
Özgür Özel, the head of the CHP, described the arrest of the Istanbul mayor as a “coup attempt” and alleged that Trump had prior knowledge of it. Özel’s description of Erdoğan as “the junta leader” has infuriated the AKP.
Political Islamists have usually criticized mainstream parties including the CHP of secretly cooperating with the U.S. during past coups. In addition, Erdoğan had been accusing the supporters of Gezi protests of being the agents of the West.
