By Barçın Yinanç
When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became
German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main
motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.
On the contrary, the delay in the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant by Russia’s Rosatom is blamed on Germany, as Siemens Energy has withheld crucial parts needed to complete the Akkuyu power plant.
Siemens took the order from Russia before the war started, and has stated that the German government’s restrictions on exports to Russia are responsible for the delays, not the company.
SCHOLZ VISITS TURKEY
As the prospects for an end to the war in Ukraine are growing, especially after the U.S. elections, Turkey's potential role in mediating at least a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow appears to have put Ankara back on Berlin’s strategic radar. Scholz is scheduled to come to Turkey in the coming days, for a visit that is expected to go smoothly despite the current strains in relations.
2025 is expected to be the year of negotiations to end the war not only because of U.S. elections but also due to Ukraine fatigue in Europe. Germany is heading towards elections next year and Scholz has announced he intends to run for reelection — despite his low ratings.
Turkish President Erdoğan had a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 7. Erdoğan is expected to attend the BRICS meeting in Kazan, although the visit has not been officially confirmed. He will certainly convey Ankara’s analysis of the war in its north.
In addition to the war in Ukraine, migration can be expected to be high on the agenda. Migration issues have been dominating the local elections as the far-right Alternative for Deutschland has made serious gains. Scholz needs to give the message to the German public that he is working with key partners to mitigate the problem.
This might explain a recent decision by the German government to resume significant arms exports to Turkey for the first time in years, signaling a potential shift in policy.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS ON ‘ARMS EMBARGO’
According to Der Spiegel magazine, the German Federal Security Council recently approved the export of German weapons worth several hundred million euros to Turkey.
A German official confirmed the news story to Turkey in Depth without giving any detail, saying discussions are still continuing on the scale of the sale.
Germany is also reconsidering the request to purchase Eurofighter warplanes, according to a report by the Middle East Eye.
Germany was reported at the beginning of the year to have lifted its veto on Eurofighter sales to Saudi Arabia. The shift in policy is due to the change of situation following the October 7
Hamas attack.
Increasing tensions in the Middle East, such as fears of a war between Iran and Israel, as well as the growing Russian threat to Europe has also prompted a rethink on the sale of Eurofighters to Turkey, according to a German source who spoke to the Middle East Eye.
Despite differences in positions, the war in the Middle East will also be high on Scholz's agenda, a German source told Turkey in Depth.
The Gaza war and Germany’s support to Israel is an extremely tense issue. Erdoğan traded barbs with Scholz during a visit last November to Berlin, at one point suggesting Germany won’t criticize Israel because of the Holocaust. This time around the German side appears to be confident that the Scholz visit will be relatively harmonious.
Germany’s blocking crucial parts of the Akkuyu power plant might not even overshadow the visit, as Berlin could also signal a revisit of that decision as well.
Meanwhile, although Siemens has blamed the delay on German authorities, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar criticized the German company for not taking any action. Without naming it, Bayraktar said neither the company headquarters in Germany nor its representation in Turkey had done enough lobbying on the German government to solve the problem.
Bayraktar’s statement in a televised interview on Sept. 20 did not go down well with the German business community, which is uneasy about the prospects of pressure from the Turkish government.
Although well-established major German companies are well-rooted in Turkey, it has been extremely difficult to attract investments from new companies which are discouraged by the economic and political turbulence in the country.
