By Barçın Yinanç
Azerbaijan has lost an important opportunity to promote its image on the international stage by delaying a peace deal with Armenia ahead of the COP29 summit in Baku.
While experts familiar with the negotiations believe important progress has been made, Baku’s request for changes to the Armenian constitution has become a new obstacle before a final deal.
The Azerbaijani leadership feels resentful about the pressure put on Baku for a quick deal, according to Nigar Göksel from the International Crisis Group. “Azerbaijan says no one was in a hurry between 1993 and 2020 and no one cared about their grievances at that time including thousands of displaced Azerbaijanis. They don’t appreciate the pressure,” Göksel told me.
Baku wants to see an end to all territorial claims once and for all and secure a solid deal that will prevent Armenia from making territorial claims over Nagorno Karabakh, according to Göksel.
Yet the delay in sealing a deal entails the risk of losing the best circumstances in favor of Baku.
RISKS OF DELAYING A RESOLUTION
Many experts believe Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s current leader, is the right interlocutor and represents an opportunity to reach a solution. Already under criticism for having made too many compromises, if Pashinyan were to lose power and be replaced by a more hawkish leadership, the window of opportunity for a final settlement could close.
Armenians made a mistake in the past by failing to sign a peace deal after their military victory. Yet circumstances have changed and they are now in a less favorable position. The same could happen today for Baku.
Yet Baku’s overconfidence was on display during the COP29 summit, where the president of Azerbaijan lashed out at European powers. Ilham Aliyev used a gathering of island leaders at the summit to attack France and the Netherlands for maintaining overseas territories.
The “unofficial boycott” of some European leaders including French leader Emmanuel Macron with whom Aliyev has an icy relationship seems to have irritated the Azerbaijani leader.
Addressing small island states, Aliyev tied climate change to “neocolonialism.”
He said France's handling of protests in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia constituted “crimes” and “human rights violations.” He also severely criticized the European Union and the Council of Europe.
Many experts in Turkey believe France’s support to Armenia and the EU’s general siding with Yerevan has not helped peace talks.
ICY RELATIONS WITH EUROPEAN LEADERSHIP
Aliyev’s style is reminiscent of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s aggressive rhetoric against the West until 2020.
Yet, Ankara had to tone down its flaming discourse following sanctions as well as the deteriorating economic situation. A major producer of oil and natural gas, Baku might feel it will not face similar fragilities in the future, as it also strikes energy deals with Europe.
Ankara should encourage Baku to seek a speedier resolution since all the geopolitical equations can change rapidly, said Professor Mitat Çelikpala, from Kadir Has University.
Russia was at the weakest point in its history in the first few months of this year and an Armenian-Azerbaijani resolution coupled with Turkish-Armenian resolution could have facilitated Turkey to take the lead in shaping the near future in the Caucasus.
Ankara aims at developing connectivity projects to deepen economic and trade relations throughout the Caucasus to secure permanent peace and stability in the region. The Middle Corridor project is one of the connectivity schemes Ankara has been promoting.
ANKARA LOST LEVERAGE OVER BAKU
Ankara has been silently lobbying Baku for a speedier deal yet it appears to have lost leverage over the Azerbaijani leadership.
In fact, Ankara cannot even fulfill its pledge to advance normalization with Yerevan in parallel to the peace talks between Baku and Yerevan.
Aliyev does not want Ankara to move on normalization until a peace deal is finalized, whereas some Turkish officials believe taking steps forward to reconcile with Armenia will be an extra incentive for Pashinyan to accept some of Baku’s terms.
Meanwhile, the Gaza war appears to have added extra strains to Ankara’s relations with Baku. The former is under domestic pressure to stop Azerbaijani oil flow to Israel, which is one of Baku’s strategic partners.
Turkey refused to allow Israeli President Isaac Herzog to use its airspace to attend the COP climate summit in Azerbaijan. Attempts by Azerbaijani officials to obtain Turkey’s approval for the flight were unsuccessful, according to Azerbaijani media.
