Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% for the third consecutive meeting on June 11, matching the consensus forecast of economists. The Monetary Policy Committee also held its overnight lending rate at 40% and its borrowing rate at 35.5%. The central bank last altered its policy rate in January with a 100-basis-point cut.
Millions of retirees in Turkey are waiting for official inflation data due on July 3 to learn how much their pensions could increase in the second half of the year. TurkStat will announce June inflation figures on July 3, revealing the inflation rate for the first six months of 2026. The data will determine the basis for pension adjustments. The parliament previously set the minimum pension for workers and self-employed retirees at 20,000 Turkish lira ($434) as of Jan. 1, 2026. Any increase to that minimum pension level will require a new legal regulation.
Questions about the future of Turkey-Armenia normalization have grown after Turkish Foreign Ministry removed key wording from its statement on Armenian elections, putting pressure on Armenia rather than also pushing Azerbaijan and it took President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan four days to congratulate the Armenian prime minister on his election win.
In the latest episode of a legal battle between the central government and the opposition-led Istanbul municipality, a Turkish appeals court on June 4 temporarily blocked the transfer of the historic Basilica Cistern, a major tourist attraction of Istanbul, from the municipality to the Directorate General of Foundations.
Protesting coal miners from Doruk Madencilik have returned to the capital after a government-backed deal to pay their overdue wages failed.
Tom Barrack, now appointed as special envoy to Iraq in addition to his ambassadorial role in Turkey and special envoy role in Syria, described Iraq, Syria, and Turkey as 'the strategic fulcrum upon which any enduring Middle East stability must pivot,' calling for a single, consistent point of American contact across the three nations.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, known for his intensive diplomacy and negotiation efforts on Middle East cases, particularly Syria, has embarked for the first time since taking office on a lengthy Asia-Pacific tour, visiting four countries in succession.
Since the court voided the CHP's 2023 party congress, the main opposition has been unable to untangle the knot — and each new court decision pulls it tighter. The question is whether the party can hold an extraordinary congress to break the deadlock. But the forces shaping what comes next run deeper: when and how the CHP headquarters under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, 77, will move to press disciplinary charges, expelling some figures; whether the parliamentary immunity of ousted chair Özgür Özel, 51, and his allies — implicated by recent testimonies from Antalya and Uşak — will be lifted; and when a new party will be established.
At Istanbul Airport, one can sometimes see the new Turkish economy walking past in surgical bands. Men arrive with thinning hair and leave with careful instructions, swollen foreheads and a cautious sense of restoration.
Turkey's oldest and main opposition party, the CHP, is now effectively divided in two after a court annulled the party's November 2023 congress and reinstated former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in place of Özgür Özel. The split became more visible when both camps held rallies simultaneously at 2 p.m. on May 30. Kılıçdaroğlu returned to party headquarters to chants of 'Kılıçdaroğlu, the people's hope' — a stark reversal from just days earlier, when another crowd had branded him a 'traitor' and 'the AKP's hope' on May 24, reacting to the court-ordered change in the party leadership carried out with police support. The first head-to-head show of strength between the two camps laid bare a simple reality: Özel commands greater grassroots support, but Kılıçdaroğlu holds the formal authority to run the party.
Selling pressure intensified on Istanbul’s stock exchange today following a court ruling of "absolute nullity" regarding the main opposition CHP congress. The benchmark BIST 100 index plunged over 6%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The banking index took an even heavier hit, dropping more than 8% to close at 13,163 points.
One of the most concrete steps yet in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia—launched in 2021—has been taken with a move toward direct trade between the two countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is heading into a June 7 election widely seen as a vote of confidence on his parallel agendas of steering the country toward the West while pursuing peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli announced on X on May 13 that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia had been completed as of May 11.