Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
No legal steps have been taken despite calls across the spectrum for progress in the Kurdish peace process. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli both called for momentum, and the DEM Party co-chair Bakırhan turned the question back on the government: 'Who exactly are they talking to?'
Let us say it plainly at the outset: the answer is no. This is bigger than his wishes or reluctance. For more than a year, based on the operations against CHP municipalities, there has been a slew of analyses claiming that 'Erdoğan will not hold elections'. Similar analyses — citing earthquakes and wars as justification for him avoiding elections — also proved wrong before the 2023 elections and before.
While Ankara is seeking to strengthen its ties with the Washington administration, U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack has dusted off an old project aimed at transforming Turkey and Syria into a hub for energy security as an alternative to the Persian Gulf, caught in the crossfire for a month.
Turkey is unlikely to return to the “grey list” of jurisdictions that don’t do enough to fight money laundering.
The government’s efforts to cool down the Turkish economy are falling short as rising energy prices and deteriorating market confidence push inflation targets out of reach.
NATO announced that its assets shot down two ballistic missiles aimed at Turkey in a week, but Iran denied that they had targeted Turkey. Since the Defense Ministry and NATO did not provide information on which region of Iran the ballistic missiles were launched from, the route taken by the missiles and their target became a matter of debate.
Parliament will take up legislation in response to the PKK’s decision to dissolve and lay down its arms agenda after the Ramadan holiday. PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan has called for the adoption of “peace laws” as a condition for transition. While the DEM Party insists that the legal framework should be adopted before the end of March, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pointed to April, saying he expects the PKK to take more concrete steps.
The U.S. and Israel have started a war against Iran, although Trump does not want to call it as such. I saw no way out of the impasse between the two parties, although the Iranian side was optimistic after the third round of nuclear talks.
Birthday diplomacy continued between Turkey and Greece as Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis congratulated President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on turning 72.
The armed unmanned naval vehicle Sancar, jointly developed by Havelsan and Yonca Shipyard, was commissioned into the Navy at a ceremony attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Feb. 24.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted not to attend the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-led Board of Peace in Washington — much like he previously declined to travel to Davos for the initiative’s launch — signaling a calibrated diplomatic balancing act. While Erdoğan is among the few leaders known to have a personal rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump, he refrained from participating in both events hosted by Trump. Instead, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represented Turkey on both occasions.
The “process report” that charts the roadmap for Parliament toward solving the Kurdish question has been finalized. The document did not push the limits of the AKP and MHP too far; it received a cautious “hopeful” endorsement from the CHP on the grounds that accepted democratic demands “must not remain mere words on paper”; the DEM Party deemed it “better than nothing” despite its shortcomings; and the Yeni Yol group welcomed with a familiar “not enough, but yes.”