Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
In response to the reinforcement of defense in Southern Cyprus by Greece and some European countries due to the Iran conflict, Turkey deployed F-16 fighter jets and additional air defense systems to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) for the first time in 28 years.
Turkey deployed the Hisar air defense system in Northern Cyprus, soon after the procurement of the Israeli Barak MX air defense system in the South.
South Cyprus is seeking large-scale military support from both the United States and the European Union, while expanding defense cooperation with Israel, in a move raising concerns in Ankara and Northern Cyprus.
Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met under the facilitation of United Nations Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, on Dec. 11. Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides reportedly agreed to expedite a series of confidence-building measures. Talks to resolve the decadeslong Cyprus issue are unlikely to gain traction before mid-2026, as both the north and south prepare for critical elections.
Tufan Erhürman, the newly elected president of Northern Cyprus, voiced guarded expectations ahead of his first trilateral meeting on Dec. 11 with Greek Cypriot figure Nikos Christodoulides and UN envoy María Ángela Holguín. Speaking to Turkish journalists, Erhürman said that shifting regional dynamics and a long record of unsuccessful rounds make a rapid return to substantive talks unrealistic — particularly without agreed-upon parameters.
In early November 2025, two gatherings revealed the evolving architecture of Eurasian energy and resource corridors: the “3+1” Energy Ministerial in Athens, bringing together Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the United States, and the C5+1 Summit in Washington between the United States and the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
At their first meeting in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and newly elected Northern Cyprus President Tufan Erhürman restated their long-held positions on the Cyprus issue — this time with a measured but noticeable distance.
The election of Tufan Erhürman as president of Northern Cyprus rekindled hopes for renewed negotiations with the Greek Cypriots.Erhürman’s opening statements — stressing democratic tolerance, representation and the need to reopen talks under UN auspices with political equality as his “red line” — set a constructive tone: “There are no losers in this election. The Turkish Cypriot people won, our children won, our brotherhood won.” Yet those words of unity sit alongside firm warnings: political equality cannot be treated as a bargaining chip, and any new process must have meaningful limits and commitments from the outset.
Tufan Erhürman became the new president of Northern Cyprus in Sunday’s election—winning twice as many votes as incumbent Ersin Tatar. Erhürman is a familiar name among Turkish Cypriots but not to the Turkish public. A seasoned politician who has served both as prime minister and party leader, he joins a line of Cypriot leaders whose names rarely surface in Turkey outside moments of crisis. Yet, like some of his predecessors, Mehmet Ali Talat and Mustafa Akıncı—both presidents from the same social-democratic tradition—his story also crosses paths with Ankara’s academic and political world.
Recent election results in Northern Cyprus have stirred visible unease within Turkey’s ruling alliance, particularly in the far-right MHP, even as the AKP maintained a controlled response, delivering expected statements despite its apparent preferences.
Northern Cyprus’s presidential contest is more than a domestic struggle for the island’s Turkish-Cypriot leadership: it is a referendum on identity, economic survival and the shape of relations with Ankara, the EU and the Greek Cypriot.
It was already known that the questions posed to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on board the presidential plane were pre-prepared by the Directorate of Communications. Media Ombudsman Faruk Bildirici has revealed, with concrete evidence this time, what has been an open secret. Bildirici received the full text of the questions and answers long before the conversation took place on the plane taking Erdoğan and journalists back to Turkey from Washington.