Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
After Damascus launched a military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the ruling AKP-MHP alliance linked the trajectory of Turkey’s peace process to developments in Syria.
A dangerous escalation has erupted between Damascus forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in two strategically important neighborhoods of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo. As clashes intensified, evacuation notices, issued Dec. 8. by Syria’s central government in the two key districts, have raised the possibility of a military operation. Simultaneously, the Defense Ministry said that Turkey would support an expected Syrian army operation in Aleppo “if requested.”
The integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian armed forces has entered a critical phase, emerging as one of the central pillars of Syria’s fragile transition following the overthrow of Bashar Assad on Dec. 8, 2024. Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said Syria has formally delivered a 13-point roadmap outlining the integration of the SDF into the new administration, with further details expected in the coming days.
Under the agreement signed between Turkey and the U.K., the £5.4 billion payment to the Eurofighter consortium for 20 Typhoon fighter jets was not included in either the Defense Ministry’s budget or the Defense Industry Presidency's (SSB) budget. The Defense Industry Support Fund (SSDF) can be used as a source of funding for this project, but the cost of the Typhoons is approximately double the annual amount transferred to the fund from taxes collected by the state.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that Turkey would not stand idly by when its security is threatened, as Ankara and Damascus signed a new defense cooperation deal.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rejected U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack’s demands to withdraw from Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah, and Tabqa and surrender weapons, stating they plan to integrate gradually into the Syrian army rather than disarm.
The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment. Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.