Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
As the countdown to early or on-schedule elections picks up pace, transfers of lawmakers and mayors are happening at an astonishing pace. Among them, Istanbul MP Nimet Özdemir stands out. Özdemir won her parliamentary seat for the first time in 2023 — under the İYİ Party banner.
Despite expectations that early election scenarios would dissolve following the absolute nullity ruling that split the CHP into two, the debate has not ended.
Nikol Pashinyan’s election victory on June 7, his third in a row since 2018, confirmed the strong desire of the Armenian people to live in peace and prosperity in a functioning democracy as part of the Western World.
Questions about the future of Turkey-Armenia normalization have grown after Turkish Foreign Ministry removed key wording from its statement on Armenian elections, putting pressure on Armenia rather than also pushing Azerbaijan and it took President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan four days to congratulate the Armenian prime minister on his election win.
As Armenia heads toward the pivotal June 7 elections — widely seen as critical for the continuity of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s peace agenda — Turkey has accelerated the normalization process, while Russia has intensified pressure on Yerevan through sanctions.
One of the most concrete steps yet in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia—launched in 2021—has been taken with a move toward direct trade between the two countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is heading into a June 7 election widely seen as a vote of confidence on his parallel agendas of steering the country toward the West while pursuing peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli announced on X on May 13 that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia had been completed as of May 11.
Three retired Turkish diplomats have publicly voiced their support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the country's parliamentary elections scheduled for early June, following a joint visit to Yerevan.
An upcoming presidential election for the Istanbul soccer club Fenerbahçe on June 6-7, has again highlighted the ties between football and politics. The leadership of Fenerbahçe is widely seen as a position of significant influence, not just a sporting role.
CHP Chair Özgür Özel continued visiting parties in support of a by-election. While DEM and left-wing parties supported the offer, smaller parties gave stronger support for an early election rather than a by-election.
Efforts by conservative and right-wing parties to build a “third way” outside the ruling and main opposition blocs are gaining momentum, as Saadet Party and YRP — both rooted in Turkey’s first political Islamist tradition, the National View (Milli Görüş) shaped by Necmettin Erbakan — step up talks on election cooperation. The renewed contacts signal a shift in relations between the two parties, which had previously been at odds over the movement’s legacy following the founding of YRP in 2018. This time, the talks focus on bringing together Saadet Party, YRP, Gelecek Party and DEVA Party under a common framework, with a broader alliance that could also include the İYİ Party.
The CHP’s efforts to thwart the judicial crackdown through holding congresses once again faced obstacles.Nevertheless, CHP Istanbul provincial head Özgür Çelik, who has been ousted by court decision, was re-elected, after the Supreme Election Council rejected the court’s efforts to stop the congress.
Is cooperation among nationalist parties possible? What are the prospects and obstacles? Turkish politics has been polarized into two main blocs since the transition to the presidential system: the AKP on one side and the CHP on the other. While the AKP kept parties like the MHP, BBP, and HÜDA-Par in its orbit, the CHP advanced by forging open or tacit alliances with the DEM Party and İYİ Party. But this opposition front collapsed after the defeat in the 2023 elections.