RISING FORECASTS, OPPORTUNIST PRICING
Turkey's inflation and high cost of living show no sign of easing. A new Central Bank survey points to rising price expectations — coming just days after the bank officially revised its own forecasts upward.
Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Turkey's inflation and high cost of living show no sign of easing. A new Central Bank survey points to rising price expectations — coming just days after the bank officially revised its own forecasts upward.
Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek warned investors to expect a worsening in the country’s current account and the central bank said it expects faster inflation as strain grows on the government’s economic plans.
The government program against soaring prices faced a significant setback when new data revealed that inflation is already on the verge of exceeding year-end targets in the first four months of 2026.
The CEO of Turkey’s largest private lender, İşbank, called for an immediate departure from the government’s economic program, saying that global conditions have made the fight against inflation impossible.
The government’s efforts to cool down the Turkish economy are falling short as rising energy prices and deteriorating market confidence push inflation targets out of reach.
Turkey has reintroduced the “sliding scale mechanism” to prevent dramatic pump hikes from feeding inflation after the Iranian War pushed global oil prices higher.
The government decided not to increase the holiday bonus paid to retirees, despite rising inflation and growing public expectations. Instead, officials began studying alternative support models aimed at low-income pensioners.
The television drama industry is facing an unprecedented crisis as soaring inflation and domestic regulatory pressures threaten its global standing, alongside suppressive measures, including the detention of manager Ayşe Barım and the ongoing detentions in a drug and prostitution case that has labeled many figures from the sector.
January inflation came in higher than expected, raising concerns that price pressures remain stubbornly high and that progress toward the government’s disinflation targets is faltering.
At the turn of the year, a familiar ritual repeats itself in Turkey. Gyms raise their membership fees. Tradespeople adjust their prices. Real estate agents pocket higher commissions by systematically pushing up sale prices. Hardly anyone objects. Hardly anyone asks what added value is being offered. Price hikes are taken for granted — not because products have improved, but because inflation exists.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan has likened inflation to a virus, saying it becomes harder to eliminate the longer it lingers in the economy. “We are applying the right prescription,” he said. “We’ve achieved positive results so far, and we have no doubts about our ultimate goal. But the effect of the prescription varies from case to case.”
The Central Bank eased interest rates more cautiously at its latest meeting, following a sharper-than-expected rise in inflation in September.