Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
When war and peace are mentioned, the first person that comes to mind is the Russian writer Leo Tolstoy and his novel of the same title, a cornerstone of world literature. In this work, Tolstoy renders war and peace with striking realism. World history, after all, is also a history of wars — and, inevitably, a history of peace.
At the turn of the year, a familiar ritual repeats itself in Turkey. Gyms raise their membership fees. Tradespeople adjust their prices. Real estate agents pocket higher commissions by systematically pushing up sale prices. Hardly anyone objects. Hardly anyone asks what added value is being offered. Price hikes are taken for granted — not because products have improved, but because inflation exists.
The post–Second World War international order is no longer being reformed. It is being deliberately and systematically dismantled. The assumption that today’s turbulence represents a temporary deviation from a rules-based system misses a more uncomfortable reality: the system itself is being hollowed out by its original architects.
In Turkish, rüzgâr begins as a simple meteorological fact: the wind that sweeps across the Bosphorus, bends Aegean olive trees and makes wildfires spread uncontrollably. Etymologically, it probably blows in from Persian, once meaning “time, fate, weather,” before narrowing into “wind.” But its real life is in metaphor: the wind that shifts fortune, tests patience, topples governments. In a language where song lyricists routinely confide in the breeze, it was only a matter of time before politicians started doing the same.
Tufan Erhürman, the newly elected president of Northern Cyprus, voiced guarded expectations ahead of his first trilateral meeting on Dec. 11 with Greek Cypriot figure Nikos Christodoulides and UN envoy María Ángela Holguín. Speaking to Turkish journalists, Erhürman said that shifting regional dynamics and a long record of unsuccessful rounds make a rapid return to substantive talks unrealistic — particularly without agreed-upon parameters.
In early November 2025, two gatherings revealed the evolving architecture of Eurasian energy and resource corridors: the “3+1” Energy Ministerial in Athens, bringing together Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the United States, and the C5+1 Summit in Washington between the United States and the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Selahattin Demirtaş has long been more than a defendant; he is a barometer of how politics manages law, another act in a long-running political drama in Turkey. This is not a scripted series that keeps millions guessing on Thursday nights; it is a real-world production about the country’s future.
The election of Tufan Erhürman as president of Northern Cyprus rekindled hopes for renewed negotiations with the Greek Cypriots.Erhürman’s opening statements — stressing democratic tolerance, representation and the need to reopen talks under UN auspices with political equality as his “red line” — set a constructive tone: “There are no losers in this election. The Turkish Cypriot people won, our children won, our brotherhood won.” Yet those words of unity sit alongside firm warnings: political equality cannot be treated as a bargaining chip, and any new process must have meaningful limits and commitments from the outset.
Turkey marked the 102nd anniversary of the Republic with fresh signs of political realignment — reminiscent of the symbolic gestures seen during Parliament’s opening earlier this month. While the chairs of Gelecek Party and DEVA Party, both breakaway movements from the AKP, attended the Presidential Palace reception for the first time, the MHP opted to stay away. Talks on a possible merger among conservative parties are also ongoing.
Who is Ayşe Barım? Those who should know her, don’t. The people of this country—who have lived all their lives below the poverty line, and not even all of them, only a few—first heard her name in the news bulletins. When? Exactly 248 days ago, when she was arrested. They didn’t know Ayşe Barım, but in the evenings they gathered with their families or friends, cracking sunflower seeds and watching TV dramas with excitement. Yet those viewers had no idea what was happening behind the screen. Behind the mesmerizing shows they watched so devotedly stood an unknown figure. Under the headlines “Çağlayan Courthouse / Silivri Prison,” Ayşe Barım was forced—by the hand of the judiciary, not by her own will—to step onto the stage from behind the curtains.
Trumpeting that Turkey is on the way to making its fighter jet Kaan, Turkey faced the reality that it was impossible to produce them by 2028, the expected election year, as promised to the public. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged that the future of the project depends on the U.S. Congress and U.S. CAATSA sanctions imposed on Turkey. Fidan’s goals and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s knowledge of the situation topped the agenda.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz unveiled the Medium-Term Program for 2026–28, raising the end-2025 inflation target by 11 points from the previous plan. Yılmaz said real GDP growth targets are 3.8% in 2026, 4.3% in 202, and 5.0% in 2028. The inflation path is 28.5% for end-2025, 16% for end-2026, 9% for 2027, and 8% for 2028.