TURKEY'S TWO-TRACK PLAY IN KYIV: BLACK SEA RED LINE, TRADE DEAL DONE
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan carried a pointed message to Kyiv: Turkey does not want the Russia-Ukraine war spilling into the Black Sea.
Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan carried a pointed message to Kyiv: Turkey does not want the Russia-Ukraine war spilling into the Black Sea.
Paying an official visit to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ahead of the NATO Summit and signaling movement on the F-35 and the Kaan's F110 engines, US President Donald Trump also touched on two subjects that sent a chill through Ankara: the release of American Pastor Andrew Brunson, and Turkey's stance in the US-Israeli war against Iran. Meant as praise, both stories cut deeper than they flattered.
Foreign investors' confidence in Turkish equities is under mounting pressure as two of the world's leading index providers signaled Istanbul's stock market could face a downgrade. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) issued another warning regarding investment accessibility and shareholder transparency, announcing it may re-evaluate free-float structures on a company-by-company basis and reclassify certain shareholders as 'non-free float' to address distorted calculations driven by coordinated fund actions.
Education Minister Yusuf Tekin, no stranger to controversy, has provoked a backlash after announcing a change to the newly updated national school curriculum that renames the War of Independence.
Turkey's political agenda is expected to pivot sharply from diplomacy to domestic maneuvering as post-NATO scenarios dominate the discussion from July 9 onward. The conclusion of the NATO Ankara Summit, widely seen as an international success for Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan personally, has triggered intense political speculation amid increasing pressure on dissidents.
Hakan Aran, the CEO of Turkey's largest private bank, İşBank, has warned that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face severe difficulties accessing credit, predicting a highly strained second half for 2026.
In the CHP, rapidly heading toward a split after the absolute nullity ruling, one of the key questions people are looking to answer is what stance Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş will take.
The first of the Hisar-class ships designed to meet the navy's patrol requirements, was sold and delivered without ever entering the inventory.
NATO has further reinforced the air defense it provides for Turkey, despite the agreement between the US and Iran to end the war.
A critical milestone has been reached in the modernization project for F-16s with the completion of acceptance tests for mission planning software.
The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, lower than the 2.7% growth expected by economists. TurkStat data showed that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth remained at 0.1%. Household consumption made the largest contribution to growth with 3.4 percentage points. However, industrial production contracted. Also, the negative contribution of net foreign trade expanded.
As Armenia heads toward the pivotal June 7 elections — widely seen as critical for the continuity of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s peace agenda — Turkey has accelerated the normalization process, while Russia has intensified pressure on Yerevan through sanctions.