Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Developments in Syria are emerging as a potential block to Turkey’s push for Kurdish peace. With the March 10 Agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus nearing its implementation deadline, Ankara is increasing pressure for compliance.
The parliamentary commission tasked with advancing the new peace process between the PKK and Turkey is heading toward a landmark meeting on Nov. 21, when it is expected to decide whether to visit Abdullah Öcalan on İmralı Island, where he has been serving a life sentence since 1999. Although the outcome in the 51-member body initially appeared certain — with the AKP, MHP, DEM, TİP and EMEP signaling support for the visit — shifting political dynamics have pushed discussions toward avoiding a formal vote altogether, according to last-minute reports ahead of the meeting. The move is seen as a way to ease pressure on parties — particularly the AKP and CHP, both facing internal sensitivities — even though initial reports had suggested the commission would hold a vote on whether to visit Öcalan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise day-long visit to Ankara on Nov. 19, at a time when press reports revealed the U.S. and Russia had prepared a new framework peace plan.
The pressure is mounting on Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his party CHP, with investigations about the corruption allegations now extending to his immediate family and allied journalists, as CHP Chair Özgür Özel tries to challenge the government by divulging the misdoings of Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akın Gürlek.
The brief respite after a court rejected a bid to unseat main opposition CHP Chair Özgür Özel and annul the party’s 2023 congress has now given way to a widening espionage probe. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his campaign director Necati Özkan were rearrested on espionage charges, while a trustee was appointed to TELE1 television channel and its editor-in-chief, Merdan Yanardağ, was also taken into custody on Oct. 24.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan voiced support for U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan without addressing its specifics, even as pro-government media criticized the proposal and the main opposition party expressed conditional backing.
The CHP has received a brief reprieve from ongoing legal turmoil as a lawsuit seeking to annul its 38th Ordinary Congress—held on November 4–5, 2023—was postponed to Oct. 24. The delay offers the party a short breathing space. Now it is preparing for a new extraordinary congress on Sept. 21 that might address some of the legal challenges it faces. But the crackdown against CHP municipalities is pressing on. In the latest development, Bayrampaşa Mayor Hasan Mutlu became the 12th CHP mayor arrested in Istanbul—and the 18th nationwide—since the crackdown began in October 2024.
As the crackdown on CHP municipalities deepened with the detention of even private drivers, the party has remained defiant—pressing forward with rallies, contesting disinformation, visiting imprisoned members, and calling for early elections, which it frames as a fight against a “civilian coup.”
The AKP's parliamentary group has instructed ministers to refrain from speaking to journalists before the party's weekly group meetings, according to a written directive sent to ministers on May 18.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% on April 22, meeting the expectations of most analysts. The decision comes following intensified criticism of both the bank and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, 59, from the business world and media outlets close to the government.
The reopening of a six-year-old cold case involving a missing university student has reignited the main opposition’s anger towards Justice Minister Akın Gürlek, as the recent reports show then–Tunceli governor Tuncay Sonel played a critical role in covering up the case of the missing young woman Gülistan Doku.
A series of legal operations targeting CHP-run municipalities intensified on April 9 as CHP Chair Özgür Özel repeated calls for a by-election.