Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The government's push for austerity in the public sector has failed to deliver results. Despite promises to cut costs—particularly through the disposal of surplus vehicles—public institutions spent 161.2 million lira on new vehicle purchases in the first half of 2024, while generating just 5.1 million lira in sales.
Enis Güçlü Şirin, the trustee appointed to İmamoğlu İnşaat—the family business of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—holds positions on the boards of more than 20 other companies. All the firms where Şirin serves are under the administration of Turkey’s Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) which operates firms that have been seized by the state often because of bankruptcy, tax debts, or links to the Gülenist movement.
Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.
The Syrian government has requested support from Turkey to strengthen the country's defense capabilities and fight terrorist organizations, particularly Islamic State, the Defense Ministry said.
The Central Bank lowered its one-week repo rate from 46% to 43% on July 24, despite warning signs that inflation pressures persist. This was the first cut following the April rate hike. The Monetary Policy Committee also reduced the overnight lending rate from 49% to 46% and the overnight borrowing rate from 44.5% to 41.5%. While June’s core inflation trend remained unchanged, preliminary indicators pointed to a temporary rise in July inflation due to month-specific factors.
After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.
Parliament passed a legislative package on July 19 that enables mining in olive groves, triggering protests from opposition parties, locals, and environmental groups. The bill, which the AKP says is to address Turkey’s energy needs, passed with 255 votes in favor and 199 against.
Ahead of CHP’s hesitations to join the parliamentary commission, DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan said that the party will maintain its opposition identity even if the process is successful. Bakırhan stated that the matter will eventually be brought before the DEM and that they will not approve the constitutional amendment if it does not satisfy their demands regarding the Kurdish issue, democratization, women's rights, youth, Alevis' right to equal citizenship, economic justice, and the environment.
One of the prosecutors overseeing the case against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has come under fire after CHP Chair Özgür Özel revealed that the prosecutor displays a model of a Beyaz Toros—a car widely associated with disappearances and state violence in the 1990s. İmamoğlu, who has been held at Silivri Prison since his March 19 arrest, recounted the incident during an interview with journalist Ruşen Çakır of Medyascope as he visited the Istanbul Mayor in prison. İmamoğlu said the prosecutor, who took his testimony following the sweeping police operation, placed a symbolic image of the white Renault Toros on his desk and ended the interrogation by saying: “Tomorrow you become president, then you judge us.”
In the great Turkish game of semantics, few words do more political heavy lifting than süreç. Literally “process,” süreç is the bureaucrat’s fig leaf, the politician’s magic wand, and the journalist’s catch-all term when no one knows quite what to call a thing. It conjures movement without a very clear or declared direction, change without rupture, action without accountability. You don’t fail a süreç—you just manage it, drag it, or rebrand it.
Journalist Fatih Altaylı, who has been detained at Silivri Prison since June 22 on allegations of threatening the president in remarks on his YouTube channel, has an indictment filed against him that calls for as much as five years in jail.
The paths of Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mehmet Murat Çalık first crossed in 2014. İmamoğlu had just been elected mayor of Beylikdüzü. Çalık began working with him as deputy mayor. In 2019, when İmamoğlu became Mayor of Istanbul, Çalık was elected mayor of Beylikdüzü in the same elections.