Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
After court-appointed interim chair Gürsel Tekin entered the main opposition CHP’s Istanbul provincial office under police escort, the party announced it would close the building and relocate operations to its Bahçelievler branch, notifying authorities.
Turkey’s main opposition party, the CHP, is set to hold an extraordinary congress on Sept. 21, after more than 900 delegates submitted signatures to Ankara’s Çankaya District Election Board on September 5. The move comes amid a growing legal standoff that has rocked the party’s Istanbul branch. Among the signatories, the 196 Istanbul delegates suspended by court order were not included.
Turkey’s main opposition CHP suffered a fresh blow as a court dissolved its largest provincial board in Istanbul over cash payment claims. The party now awaits either a Sept. 5 ruling by the Supreme Election Board (YSK) or a Sept.15 court hearing that could unseat Chair Özgür Özel’s administration. The CHP, which came to power at a November 2023 congress with the slogan “Change,” now risks being replaced by the team of former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The 45th Civil Court of First Instance ruled that irregularities in the October 2023 Istanbul provincial congress were “approximately proven.” The court suspended provincial chair Özgür Çelik, the executive and disciplinary boards, and 196 delegates. Attention has now turned to another court set to review the CHP’s 2023 congress in Ankara. “The Istanbul decision is null and void. We do not recognize it,” said Özel, vowing not to hand over CHP’s Istanbul building to the appointed administration. The Istanbul administration also started a stage-in protest in front of the building for 24 hours.
As Turkey reels from a major diploma fraud scandal, the main opposition CHP has turned its attention to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, questioning the validity of his academic credentials.
Twelve Turkish soldiers died from gas exposure in a PKK-used cave in northern Iraq on July 6, and two more from excessive fluid loss in Hatay on July 25, but key questions about both incidents remain unanswered.
Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.
The Central Bank lowered its one-week repo rate from 46% to 43% on July 24, despite warning signs that inflation pressures persist. This was the first cut following the April rate hike. The Monetary Policy Committee also reduced the overnight lending rate from 49% to 46% and the overnight borrowing rate from 44.5% to 41.5%. While June’s core inflation trend remained unchanged, preliminary indicators pointed to a temporary rise in July inflation due to month-specific factors.
Ahead of CHP’s hesitations to join the parliamentary commission, DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan said that the party will maintain its opposition identity even if the process is successful. Bakırhan stated that the matter will eventually be brought before the DEM and that they will not approve the constitutional amendment if it does not satisfy their demands regarding the Kurdish issue, democratization, women's rights, youth, Alevis' right to equal citizenship, economic justice, and the environment.
The process dubbed “Terror-Free Turkey” by the ruling alliance has reached a critical point. The PKK is expected to release its first disarmament footage in the coming days. With such symbolic images looming, both sides are warning of possible provocations, stressing the need to remain vigilant against attempts to derail the process.
Just weeks before the Supreme Military Council (YAŞ) meets to decide on promotions in the ranks, the ruling AKP introduced a bill to amend the Turkish Armed Forces Personnel Law, allowing force commanders to remain in office until age 72 with presidential approval.
The chairs of Turkey’s ruling alliance launched coordinated attacks on the main opposition CHP, accusing it of internal disarray, corruption, and political opportunism.
A new front has been opened in the judicial assault on the main opposition CHP, shifting the focus from Istanbul to the party’s stronghold in Izmir. The latest set of raids came as Izmir fought off forest fires and as the CHP prepared to hold a major rally in Saraçhane—home to Istanbul's Municipality—marking the 100th day of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s pre-trial detention. They also followed hard on the heels of a court hearing that could have annulled the party’s 2023 congress.