Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The crisis in Turkey’s Ponzi-style fund industry is heading for deadlock as the government refuses to disclose the 141 people and 73 companies that each made more than 100 million liras in unjust gains despite opposition demands for transparency.
The Central Bank cut its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points to 36% on Oct. 22, its first monetary easing since January, in line with market expectations.
The Borsa Istanbul’s benchmark BIST 100 index entered a technical bear market at the end of September, marking its worst monthly performance since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% for the third consecutive meeting on June 11, matching the consensus forecast of economists. The Monetary Policy Committee also held its overnight lending rate at 40% and its borrowing rate at 35.5%. The central bank last altered its policy rate in January with a 100-basis-point cut.
Selling pressure intensified on Istanbul’s stock exchange today following a court ruling of "absolute nullity" regarding the main opposition CHP congress. The benchmark BIST 100 index plunged over 6%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The banking index took an even heavier hit, dropping more than 8% to close at 13,163 points.
Esra Işık, an activist from the village of İkizköy in Muğla’s Milas district who has spent years fighting to save her community's olive groves and farmland from coal mining expansion, was brought to her first court hearing on April 27 in handcuffs, escorted by gendarmerie officers from Şakran Prison in İzmir — more than 100 miles from her hometown where her case is being tried.
The postponement of the decision in the lawsuit to cancel the CHP's 38th regular congress brought short-term relief to the markets. The BIST 100 index gained 5% following the decision. The banking index also gained over 6%. The risk premium reached 261 basis points, the lowest in about six months.
Turkey has postponed its moon landing project, which it had aimed to carry out in 2023 to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic but later delayed to 2026, this time to 2027. The government established the Turkish Space Agency in 2018 to coordinate space activities.
A new front has been opened in the judicial assault on the main opposition CHP, shifting the focus from Istanbul to the party’s stronghold in Izmir. The latest set of raids came as Izmir fought off forest fires and as the CHP prepared to hold a major rally in Saraçhane—home to Istanbul's Municipality—marking the 100th day of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s pre-trial detention. They also followed hard on the heels of a court hearing that could have annulled the party’s 2023 congress.
The Trump administration and Turkey got off to a good start but the relationship needs to mature, an American observer familiar with both sides told me when asked about the first 100 days.
We begin with a cliché frequently heard in a negative context when discussing Turkey’s political and social developments: “This can’t be happening too!” During the operation targeting Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, nearly 100 people—one of them Mahir Polat—were detained. Who is Mahir Polat? He is the deputy secretary general of the municipality and a close member of İmamoğlu’s core team. That much may be understandable. But Polat’s imprisonment triggered yet another “this can’t be happening” moment.