By Barçın Yinanç
The Trump administration and Turkey got off to a good start but the relationship needs to mature, an American observer familiar with both sides told me when asked about the first 100 days.
To start with, the observer believes the U.S. president picked the right envoy to Ankara. Tom Barrack, who was confirmed by the U.S. Congress on April 30, is a close business associate and a peer to Trump.
He picked a former Fox host as envoy to Athens as he values media personalities. Yet he nominated a high achiever, a deal-maker for Ankara, said the observer. Barrack’s direct access to Trump will certainly be an important asset for bilateral ties.
BACKCHANNEL BETWEEN TWO CAPITALS
Turkish diplomats believe there is already a back channel open between the two leaders.
In addition, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hakan Fidan have already met in person several times and had many telephone conversations. They appear to have good chemistry.
Ankara had complained during the first Trump administration about the lack of institutional dialogue and contact at different levels of government, to complement the direct dialogue between Trump and Erdoğan. It remains to be seen if the same issues will arise since many seats in Washington remain empty, including the seat of Assistant Secretary of State for Europe.
On several occasions Trump has talked highly of Erdoğan. Washington remained muted in the face of the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Trump avoided the use of “genocide” on April 24.
Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden avoided talking to Erdoğan in his first 100 days, reaching out only on April 24, as if to compensate for the fact that he was the first American president to use the term genocide in annual statements.
CHANGING BALANCES IN SYRIA
While the tone in terms of “rhetoric” has improved, early signs about problems that poisoned relations, such as the U.S. support for the YPG, which Turkey considers as the PKK’s wing in Syria, leaves room for cautious optimism.
The fall of Bashar Assad a month before Trump entered the White House shifted the balance in Syria. In contrast to Israel, Trump appears to have no problem with Turkey’s affinity to Ahmed Al Sharaa. Trump’s call on the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netenyahu to be reasonable in his relations with Turkey was certainly welcome in Ankara.
As tension increased between Israel and Turkey after the former bombed bases where Ankara was reportedly planning to deploy forces, Washington stepped in to push the two sides toward talks on military deconfliction.
CHANGING RHETORIC
But more importantly, U.S. military officials have played an important role in talks between Al Sharaa and the PKK, which makes up the backbone of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG).
Until recently, Ankara said SDG, YPG and PYD were just names invented to sugarcoat the PKK and accused the U.S. of supporting a terrorist organization for the sake of fighting ISIS.
Yet ever since MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli initiated the so-called “terror-free Turkey” process, Ankara’s objection to the use of SDG appears to have dropped and even the defense minister has started to use the same name.
There are press reports that the U.S. pushed the SDG to take a more compromising stance in talks with Al Sharaa. Still, the call for a decentralized system, as well as other demands that were voiced after the Kurdish National Conference in Qamishli on April 26 run against Ankara’s so-called red lines.
Foreign Minister Fidan has many times said Turkey is against a federation in Syria and that he was convinced the transitional government in Damascus has also endorsed this view. Despite criticism from the opposition, it is very striking that the government has remained silent on the conclusions of the meeting in Qamishli.
While Trump relied on special envoy Steve Witkoff on negotiations with Russia, Israel and Iran, CENTCOM, which is believed to be hostile to Turkey, continues to play a key role in Syria.
POSITIVE STEPS
Meanwhile some positive signals have come from Washington suggesting a change of stance about the sale of F-35s to Turkey, excluded from the joint production program as a result of its purchase of Russian S400s.
A High Level Defense Group meeting between Turkey and the U.S. was held in Ankara on April 28, suggesting the two capitals do not want to waste time on defense cooperation issues.
Turkey has been hit by the lowest reciprocal tariffs imposed by Washington which was also welcome news in Ankara. Bilateral trade is in favor of Washington which would please Trump who wants the U.S. to sell more and buy less from abroad.
“The Turkish side is not as anxious as the Europeans about Trump. Ankara believes it can work with Trump,” an American expert in touch with Turkish officials told me.
There are still many who believe Ankara needs to remain cautious in view of Trump’s unpredictability.
