A GRAND BARGAIN TAKES SHAPE: HALKBANK, HAMAS AND THE YPG FACTOR
The deal to resolve the case over allegations that Halkbank helped Iran evade American sanctions was announced on March 9, at the height of U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran.
Analysis
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TURKEY’S HALF-HEARTED ENDORSEMENT OF TRUMP’S BOARD OF PEACE INITIATIVE
One would expect the bromance between U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to reach new heights following the former’s recent disavowal of the PKK/YPG.
SHADOW OF SYRIA OVER TURKEY’S PEACE PROCESS
Following the PKK’s decision to lay down arms, the newly launched “peace process” has become tangled up in tensions over Syria. The military operation by the Damascus regime that pushed the SDF/YPG out of two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has strained relations between the AKP–MHP alliance and the DEM Party, ending a cautious rapprochement as part of the process. It has also disrupted a positive atmosphere that had lasted for nearly a year, raising fresh doubts about the prospects of success.
TURKEY’S SYRIA DILEMMA
Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.
US ENVOY SHIFTS TONE ON YPG BUT ISRAEL NOT IN TUNE
A Turkish ambassador serving in a Central Asian country before 2016 was criticized for not showing enough interest in the Gülenists schools. The envoy received several phone calls from AKP officials complaining he was not, for instance, visiting the schools frequently enough.