A Turkish ambassador serving in a Central Asian country before 2016 was criticized for not showing enough interest in the Gülenists schools. The envoy received several phone calls from AKP officials complaining he was not, for instance, visiting the schools frequently enough.
Following the coup attempt in 2016, the same ambassador received a phone call from the foreign minister who told him to do everything in his power to pursue the Gülenists, even at the expense of antagonizing the host government. “But what about our relations with this country?” asked the envoy. “I don’t care,” was the answer.
This is typical of the AKP’s foreign policy: swinging from one extreme to the other. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has gained a well-deserved reputation for his U-turns.
In addition to his reversal in terms of befriending Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi after calling him a dictator, his course correction in terms of relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also stands as a case study.
The Arab Spring has fueled the rivalry between Turkey and the Gulf States, as the former, together with Qatar, supported the Muslim Brotherhood, which is seen as an existential threat by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Erdoğan even accused the Emirati leadership of financing the coup.
As the Arab Spring lost momentum, the Muslim Brotherhood experienced a considerable decline in its influence in the region. The aggravation of Turkey’s economic troubles, together with changes in regional dynamics, led to normalization between Turkey and the Gulf kingdoms by 2021.
TIMING OF THE VISIT
Still, it is ironic that UAE President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan,
chose 16 July, the day following July 15, which has been declared an official holiday ever since the coup attempt, for his visit to Ankara.
Aside from this coincidence, the visit is timely, since the UAE stands as one of the strongest supporters of Israel among the Gulf states. While “the Republic of Türkiye” has no ambassador in Israel with which it has even cut its trade ties, the UAE, which as an Arab country is expected to show more solidarity to Palestinians, has kept its envoy in Israel. Ankara has been trying to mobilize regional countries against Israel’s policies in both Gaza and Syria.
Known by his initials MBZ, the Emirati leader was in Ankara at a time when Israel bombed Syrian Army headquarters in Damascus following fights between government forces and the Druze community in the south of the country.
Although on July 7 Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa made his second visit to Abu Dhabi since coming to power, the UAE leadership has been initially circumspect about the new leadership in Damascus.
ISRAEL’S STRATEGY IN SYRIA FUELS TURKEY’S SECURITY DILEMMAS
As Israel continues to enjoy the culture of impunity in its actions in Gaza, its policy of keeping a weak and fragmented Syria remains a major headache for Turkey. Syria’s stability is important not only to secure the return of Syrian refugees but also for the so-called “Terror-free Turkey” project.
While 30 members of the PKK laid down their arms in a historic disarmament ceremony on July 11, the fate of the peace process depends on how the agreement between Damascus and the YPG will take shape.
Ironically, Turkish officials who for several years avoided using the term Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are now referring to the SDF, instead of the YPG, as if to make the public forget the PKK’s presence in Syria.
By contrast, the American envoy to Ankara, Tom Barrack, who said in his early days that the SDF would continue to enjoy U.S. support, is now reminding readers in his press statements that the SDF is the YPG, which is the PKK.
Barrack has started to turn against the YPG, criticizing the group for dragging its feet on integrating into Syria’s new regime. His statement that federalism will not work for Syria has angered the YPG.
“So you have the Druze who want it to be Druze land. You have the Alawites who want it to be Alawite land. You have the Kurds who want it to be Kurdistan. And what Syria is saying, what Damascus is saying, that’s not going to happen – all roads lead to Damascus; one country, one nation, one military – and that’s in the process,” Barack told the press.
Still, Israel appears not to be in tune with Barrack. In addition, some experts question whether he has the backing of all the establishment in Washington. There might be a divergence of views between the State Department and Centcom, according to Serhat Erkmen, an expert on Syrian affairs.
The more Barrack’s views approach those of Turkey, the more that seems to make Israel nervous.
