Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Next month Antalya hosts COP31, Nov. 9-20. Ankara has sent two invitations to Cyprus: one, through the conference organizers, to the president of the Republic of Cyprus, and one, from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Two deadly maritime disasters off Northern Cyprus and in the Marmara Sea have raised questions over oversight failures within maritime transport, leaving at least 20 dead and 28 missing while triggering political backlash against officials.
Based on his experience as the British government’s Cyprus coordinator, Lord David Hannay once said: “No one has ever lost money betting against a Cyprus settlement.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres' July 27-29 visit to Cyprus produced no concrete resolution plan or new timetable. Ankara welcomed efforts with caution and Deputy Foreign Minister Mehmet Kemal Bozay headed to Northern Cyprus after the talks.
Turkey wants the modernization of its Customs Union with the European Union — off the agenda for years — to be part of the equation as diplomatic traffic on the Cyprus issue accelerates, more than three European diplomats confirmed to Turkey in Depth.
António Guterres will arrive in Cyprus at the end of July, carrying another possibility of peace to an island familiar with such visits. Cyprus diplomacy sometimes resembles Buñuel’s The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie. The guests assemble, the table is laid, and dinner is indefinitely postponed.
Cyprus is preparing for a summer of diplomatic activity unseen for a long time, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Gueterres makes a last push to solve the decades-old problem before the end of his tenure in December.
Before the government submits a bill to define Turkish zones of jurisdiction in the surrounding seas, Turkey and Greece have once again clashed off the coast of Cyprus.
The war in Gaza has already changed the dynamics in the Middle East. Before the region was able to digest all these changes, another front emerged: the confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran that expanded in geographic and political scope.
The two consecutive meetings between the leaders of Cyprus’s Turkish and Greek communities, held after a five-year hiatus, generated cautious optimism about the prospects for renewed engagement. Yet this momentum is overshadowed by parallel efforts to consolidate trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece, and Greek Cyprus.
Following Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory in the presidential election with almost 63% of the vote in Northern Cyprus, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP)—which Erhürman formerly led—is preparing to take power in the upcoming general elections, expected by January 2026 at the latest. Sıla Usar İncirli, 54, the CTP’s new and first female chair, said that the party favors a federation model as part of the search for a solution in Cyprus, and they have begun drafting their government program.
If Cyprus were a film, it would probably be The Truman Show. Not because anything dramatic is happening, quite the opposite. The genius of The Truman Show is that nothing seems to be happening at all.