By Barçın Yinanç
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Cyprus is preparing for a summer of diplomatic activity unseen for a long time, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Gueterres makes a last push to solve the decades old problem before the end of his tenure in December.
After a four-month hiatus, Gueterres’ special envoy Maria Angela Holguin returned to the island this week to hold meetings with the leaders of the two communities. She is expected to travel to Ankara and Athens this week to lay the ground for a possible “five plus one” meeting by the end of July or early August.
Holguin waited for the elections in the South, as well as the end of the Greek Cypriot presidency of the European Union, before returning to the island. She also waited to see to what degree the negotiating position of the new Turkish Cyprus leader would sync with that of Ankara.
Ever since the collapse of the talks at Crans Montana in 2017, Ankara has pushed for a two-state solution, which implied the Turkish side would come to the negotiation table only to discuss the conditions for a “peaceful divorce.” This line was fully endorsed by Tufan Erhürman’s predecessor as president of Turkish Cyprus Ersin Tatar.
ERHÜRMAN TAKES CAUTIOUS STEPS TOWARD ANKARA
The former head of the Republican Turkish Party, which is known to favor federal solutions, won a landslide victory last October against Tatar, who was supported by Ankara. Erhürman won the elections by favoring a return to negotiations only under certain conditions and by giving the implicit message that he would not fight with Ankara.
Indeed, he has been very careful, before and after the elections, in his rhetoric about Turkey.
Erhürman met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan twice after the elections,in April. The two leaders are said to be on the same page as far as Erhürman’s methodology.
ANKARA SAYS ‘YES’ TO NEGOTIATIONS
Erhürman’s position is to start negotiations, which is seen as a change in Ankara’s rigid posture on the two-state position.
Information from Erdoğan’s meeting with the UN secretary general last March confirms this change, as the two discussed the possibility of a new diplomatic push. While the Greek Cypriots are convinced that Erdoğan promised to support such a push, the information on the Turkish Cypriot side is more modest: that he did not object to such an endeavor.
As Erhürman avoids identifying them as conditions, his so-called “methodology” for talks has four articles. Erhürman does not want negotiations to be open-ended, and more importantly, he says there should not be a return to the status quo if talks fail.
While expectations on the north of the island are low in terms of the possibility of resuming talks, the Turkish Cypriot leadership anticipates UN mediators will find a way to accommodate Erhürman’s “methodology.”
The insistence on accepting in advance that there will be no return to the status quo remains the critical one. If this is perceived as an automatic road to a two-state solution, the acceptance of such a possibility is a definite non-starter, as even the most pro-solution and flexible figures in the South are said to reject it outright.
A credible promise to lift the embargoes, and measures to lessen the isolation, such opening the airport, increasing trade possibilities that might eventually lead to a Taiwan model, could provide a formula to be contemplated, according to experts familiar with the Cyprus issue.
A NEW WINDOW?
Although the island has seen many failed attempts, regional developments mean there is yet another window of opportunity now, experts believe.
The lack of interest observed by Holguin in 2024 in European capitals is no longer the case, according to sources close to the envoy of the secretary general, who is said to be willing to work closely with the EU on the issue. In fact, the top Portuguese diplomat is in frequent contact with Antonio Costa, the Portuguese politician who is currently president of the European Council. Costa, as well as European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen, have been invited to Ankara for the NATO summit scheduled for July 7-8.
The rupture between Washington and Europe over security and political issues, as well as the war the Trump administration and Israel have waged against Iran, are seen as important factors changing the dynamics.
“Turkey’s strategic value for Europe has increased. Turkey needs Europe for its security interests; but it is not sure how to handle it,” one observer told me.
A solution to the Cyprus problem, or ongoing efforts to solve it, can facilitate the relationship between Ankara and the EU, according to the observer familiar with the issue.
