CENTRAL BANK CUTS INTEREST RATE IN FIRST EASING SINCE JANUARY
The Central Bank cut its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points to 36% on Oct. 22, its first monetary easing since January, in line with market expectations.
Analysis
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The Central Bank cut its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points to 36% on Oct. 22, its first monetary easing since January, in line with market expectations.
Turkey's central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady on Sept. 10, matching market expectations as energy cost pressures continue to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Turkey has become the world's most expensive borrower in local currency, agreeing to pay interest rates exceeding 41% during back-to-back domestic bond auctions this week.
Most market participants expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 37% when it meets on July 23, but pressure is building for a cut and some experts are calling for a wholesale shift in monetary policy.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% for the third consecutive meeting on June 11, matching the consensus forecast of economists. The Monetary Policy Committee also held its overnight lending rate at 40% and its borrowing rate at 35.5%. The central bank last altered its policy rate in January with a 100-basis-point cut.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said interest rate cuts can only be effective when inflation is under control.
The central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 37% on April 22, meeting the expectations of most analysts. The decision comes following intensified criticism of both the bank and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, 59, from the business world and media outlets close to the government.
The Central Bank eased interest rates more cautiously at its latest meeting, following a sharper-than-expected rise in inflation in September.
The Central Bank reduced the calculation margins for credit card cash advances and overdraft account interest rates by 25 basis points.
The Central Bank reduced its policy interest rate, the one-week repo auction rate, from 43% to 40.5%, the second straight cut.
Hakan Aran, head of İş Bank, the country’s largest private lender, said they expect Turkey’s annual inflation to drop to 29% by the end of 2025, with interest rates falling to 35%. Aran shared his predictions regarding the economic normalization process at a press conference. According to Aran, “we may see monthly inflation rates drop below 1% as the normalization process begins in May 2026.”