EARLY INVESTORS PREPARE TO EXIT TOGG
Conglomerates Vestel Elektronik and Anadolu Group are in advanced negotiations to sell their stakes in Turkey’s first domestic electric vehicle manufacturer TOGG.
Analysis
In-Depth Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
TURKEY WORRIES ABOUT ISRAEL’S NEXT STEPS
Ankara is happy to see the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran as a significant first step, but worries it may not hold. The central fear focuses on Israel, which stayed silent through the night of negotiations only to issue a statement on Lebanon afterward.
SYRIA OUTLOOK OF ANKARA: FORCE NEEDED TO DRIVE NEGOTIATIONS
As negotiations between Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stalled following the loss of two Aleppo neighborhoods from its control, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the Syrian government would take steps to exercise its sovereign right to ensure unity and order within the country if needed.
A NEW TONE, OLD REALITIES, AND A HARD ROAD AHEAD IN CYPRUS
The election of Tufan Erhürman as president of Northern Cyprus rekindled hopes for renewed negotiations with the Greek Cypriots.Erhürman’s opening statements — stressing democratic tolerance, representation and the need to reopen talks under UN auspices with political equality as his “red line” — set a constructive tone: “There are no losers in this election. The Turkish Cypriot people won, our children won, our brotherhood won.” Yet those words of unity sit alongside firm warnings: political equality cannot be treated as a bargaining chip, and any new process must have meaningful limits and commitments from the outset.
$10.7 BILLION FIGHTER DEAL WITHOUT CONCRETE DETAILS
Following lengthy negotiations, an agreement for Turkey to procure 20 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 fighter jets from the UK was signed in Ankara on Oct. 27. Turkey will increase the number of aircraft in its Eurofighter fleet to 44 by procuring 12 second-hand Typhoons each from Qatar and Oman. The $10.7 billion (£8 billion) payment to the U.K. under the agreement has become a subject of debate in Turkish domestic politics, as the details of the package were not announced.
TURKEY RESHAPES OIL TIES WITH IRAQ
After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.
HOW WILL THE TRUMP TARIFF HIKES IMPACT TURKEY?
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to shake the global economy and wreak havoc. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries on April 9, letting markets soar after days of economic turmoil, he decided to hit China with further tariffs of an unprecedented 125%. There is no question that this will deepen the trade war with China. Regardless of the tariff pause, all major countries are still reflecting on worst-case scenarios. It is highly disputable whether President Trump will achieve his declared goal of striking fair and balanced trade deals with America’s partners. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and tariffs will be mutually lowered to reasonable levels through negotiations. However, given President Trump’s dithering, there is nothing but turmoil and chaos to be expected on the horizon.
YET ANOTHER LOST OPPORTUNITY FOR PEACE IN CAUCASUS
Azerbaijan has lost an important opportunity to promote its image on the international stage by delaying a peace deal with Armenia ahead of the COP29 summit in Baku. While experts familiar with the negotiations believe important progress has been made, Baku’s request for changes to the Armenian constitution has become a new obstacle before a final deal.