Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Turkish industrialists criticized a new United States’ decision to impose a 12.5% tariff on Turkish products under Section 301, warning that the move places key export sectors, especially textiles and apparel, at a severe disadvantage.
Foreign investors' confidence in Turkish equities is under mounting pressure as two of the world's leading index providers signaled Istanbul's stock market could face a downgrade. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) issued another warning regarding investment accessibility and shareholder transparency, announcing it may re-evaluate free-float structures on a company-by-company basis and reclassify certain shareholders as 'non-free float' to address distorted calculations driven by coordinated fund actions.
Turkey is watching the protests in Iran with growing concern, warning that U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of intervention could trigger dangerous regional consequences as Ankara pushes de-escalation through diplomacy with Gulf countries.
Russian and Ukrainian envoys in Ankara were warned not to wage their war in Turkish territory. The warning came as tensions in the Black Sea in the first half of December escalated to fresh peaks in the four-year-old war.
The election of Tufan Erhürman as president of Northern Cyprus rekindled hopes for renewed negotiations with the Greek Cypriots.Erhürman’s opening statements — stressing democratic tolerance, representation and the need to reopen talks under UN auspices with political equality as his “red line” — set a constructive tone: “There are no losers in this election. The Turkish Cypriot people won, our children won, our brotherhood won.” Yet those words of unity sit alongside firm warnings: political equality cannot be treated as a bargaining chip, and any new process must have meaningful limits and commitments from the outset.
The Central Bank lowered its one-week repo rate from 46% to 43% on July 24, despite warning signs that inflation pressures persist. This was the first cut following the April rate hike. The Monetary Policy Committee also reduced the overnight lending rate from 49% to 46% and the overnight borrowing rate from 44.5% to 41.5%. While June’s core inflation trend remained unchanged, preliminary indicators pointed to a temporary rise in July inflation due to month-specific factors.
The process dubbed “Terror-Free Turkey” by the ruling alliance has reached a critical point. The PKK is expected to release its first disarmament footage in the coming days. With such symbolic images looming, both sides are warning of possible provocations, stressing the need to remain vigilant against attempts to derail the process.