Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
There's a Turkish saying for describing one misfortune piling on another: 'What happened to us didn't even happen to the boiled chicken'. The last three years for opposition leaders Özgür Özel and Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the 'Change Movement' they lead, bring that saying to mind.
Amid the noise and turmoil within the CHP, it did not attract much public attention, but traffic around the Kurdish Peace Process has intensified in recent days. A DEM delegation traveled to İmralı and returned with a message from Abdullah Öcalan.
The CHP has received a brief reprieve from ongoing legal turmoil as a lawsuit seeking to annul its 38th Ordinary Congress—held on November 4–5, 2023—was postponed to Oct. 24. The delay offers the party a short breathing space. Now it is preparing for a new extraordinary congress on Sept. 21 that might address some of the legal challenges it faces. But the crackdown against CHP municipalities is pressing on. In the latest development, Bayrampaşa Mayor Hasan Mutlu became the 12th CHP mayor arrested in Istanbul—and the 18th nationwide—since the crackdown began in October 2024.
The financial crimes police raided Şile Municipality on July 10, detaining Mayor Özgür Kabadayı as part of the widening corruption investigations targeting CHP-run municipalities. It was yet another ordinary day for the main opposition, which has been facing near-daily legal turmoil since Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was detained on March 19. CHP Istanbul Chair Özgür Çelik said Kabadayı and several others were detained in house raids at 1:30 a.m. Arrest warrants were issued for at least six individuals, said the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office.
Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco is in talks with OYAK Group, the country’s largest private pension fund, over a possible partnership involving one of Turkey’s biggest fuel distribution networks, according to journalist Olcay Aydilek.
Turkey launched offshore oil and gas exploration off the eastern coast of Africa, deploying a 7th-generation ultra-deepwater drillship. Simultaneously, Turkish F-16 fighter jets, T-129 attack helicopters, and AS-532 Cougar utility helicopters, and the aircraft performed ceremonial flyovers across Mogadishu.
The Middle East is no longer simmering — it is boiling over. The genocide being carried out in Gaza, the attacks on the West Bank, the incursion into Syria, and the devastating assault on Lebanon have cemented one uncomfortable truth that much of the world is now willing to state openly: Israel has become the primary driver of instability in the region.
Turkey has reintroduced the “sliding scale mechanism” to prevent dramatic pump hikes from feeding inflation after the Iranian War pushed global oil prices higher.
Turkey is tightening border security in the east in case of a wave of people fleeing turmoil in Iran.
Ukrainian naval drones struck two ships alleged to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea off the Turkish coast, increasing tension in the shared sea even as the combatants pursue renewed peace talks. The Sea Baby drones hit the oil tankers MT Kairos and MT Virat on Nov. 28. Russia has used hundreds of tankers known as the “shadow fleet” to evade Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, delivering millions of barrels of oil to buyers in breach of those restrictions.
The first meeting in six years between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House started with positive messages, as both refrained from directly addressing the issue of Gaza, on which they are at odds.Trump suggested the U.S. could lift sanctions on Turkey and allow it to buy U.S. F-35 jets, blocked due to Turkey’s procurement of S-400s from Russia, but added that he would like to see Turkey - a NATO member - stop buying Russian oil while the war in Ukraine continues. 'I'd like to have him stop buying any oil from Russia while Russia continues this rampage against Ukraine.'
After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.