Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental transformation that could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. After decades of failed attempts—such as the 2001 peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan or the 2009 Armenia–Turkey Zurich Protocols—Armenia and Azerbaijan have now initialed agreements that could pave the way for a historic breakthrough.
After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.