By Barçın Yinanç
In political terms, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is over, but in the socio-psychological dimension, it continues, according to the Armenian prime minister.
'When I talk about peace, it seems strange and even alien to many. Peace is an unfamiliar concept for Armenia and Azerbaijan,' Nikol Pashinyan said Nov. 4 at the annual forum of the Orbeli Center, which operates under the Prime Ministry.
Overcoming years of enmity requires time and political leadership, he added.
As I listened to him, I realized that the Armenian entry stamp on my passport featuring the outline of a mountain, unmistakably Mount Ararat, had been changed since my last visit six months ago, when I came as part of a Turkish media delegation to interview Pashinyan. The entry stamp now no longer includes the mountain’s silhouette. Breaking many taboos, Pashinyan has been questioning the powerful significance of Mount Ararat as a national and cultural symbol, even though it lies within present-day Turkey.
SYMBOLIC CHANGE UNNOTICED BY TURKISH MEDIA
In earlier years, when the Turkish media was more diverse and less dominated by pro-government outlets, such a change would have made headlines, contributing to preparing the public for Turkish-Armenian normalization.
Yet it went largely unnoticed, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cannot get a green light from his Azerbaijani counterpart to start the normalisation process. While the decision taken in 2022 by Ankara and Yerevan to open the land border to third-party nationals and diplomatic passport holders still waits to be implemented, Baku appears to be starting to invest in second-track diplomacy.
Experts from Armenia and Azerbaijan have held several rounds of talks since Aug. 8, when a peace treaty was pre-signed under the watch of U.S. President Donald Trump.
An Azerbaijani flight carrying five experts landed in Yerevan last month, leaving the mouths of airport workers wide open.
One member from that delegation who returned to Armenia to attend the Orbeli International forum was hailed as the first Azerbaijani citizen visiting Yerevan twice within ten days after the two countries declared their independence.
Similarly, in a historic first, a two-member crew from Azerbaijan’s state TV also came to Yerevan to cover the forum. Half a dozen security personnel were assigned to them, as they walked on the streets surrounded by men in black.
In addition, Azerbaijan decided late October to lift restrictions on freight transit to Yerevan and on Nov. 6 a train carrying Kazakh wheat crossed the Azerbaijani border with Armenia as its final destination.
Despite these historic firsts, President Ilham Aliyev still continues to give messages that resonate badly with a highly sceptical Armenian public. Only one day before the Orbeli forum, Aliyev again called for the return of ethnic Azerbaijanis to what Baku considers their historical homeland in modern-day Armenia, while stressing that they should return by car, not tanks.
As Yerevan does not pursue the return of Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 war, Pashinyan reiterated his conviction during his speech at the forum that talk of return of refugees can jeopardize the peace process. In the same speech, Aliyev claimed that the original name of the lake within Armenia, called Sevan by Armenians, was “Gokcha.”
“It is enough to look at the maps published by Tsarist Russia in the early 20th century for everyone to see that the absolute majority of toponyms in the territory of present-day Armenia are of Azerbaijani origin,” he said in remarks that could be perceived as revisionist.
The Armenian side opted to downplay Aliyev’s statements. Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonian said that while it did not align with the logic of the current process, it implied no aggression and was rather intended for Aliyev’s domestic audience.
ERDOĞAN TO GO TO BAKU TO ATTEND VICTORY PARADE
Meanwhile, Aliyev would be wise not to talk about historical name changes with Erdoğan, since hundreds of Kurdish, Armenian, and Greek names have been replaced by Turkish names following the establishment of the Turkish Republic.
Erdoğan will go to Baku, according to the Azerbaijani press, to attend the victory day parade on Nov. 8, marking the anniversary of the end of the 2020 war. While Aliyev is expected to make an inflammatory speech, he is said to have sent messages to Pashinyan that he is committed to the peace process.
Yet, Aliyev should opt for a message to prepare the public for peace. In fact, regional experts believe Aliyev has been caught unprepared for the eventuality of peace and finds it difficult to drop his warmongering narrative. While some suspect he needs a “foreign enemy” to surf on nationalism as an authoritarian leader, Trump stands as the real guarantor for peace, as both leaders would not dare to derail a process chaperoned by the U.S. president. One of Trump’s sons is expected to be in Yerevan on Nov. 12.
As to Turkish-Armenian normalization, Pashinyan had nothing new to say other than repeating that it was a matter of time. While officials on both sides are believed to have intensified their talks and work on a roadmap that might unleash a speedy normalization process, it remains unclear when Aliyev’s consent will be secured. The intense and intricate economic ties appear to tie the hands of the government in Ankara, which is said to have been irritated to have been sidelined as Trump brokered the signing ceremony in Washington.
