The PKK is expected to lay down arms this week in a symbol that will be one of the most significant steps of the peace process dubbed “Terror-free Turkey.”
Iraqi Kurdish media outlet Rudaw reported on June 30 that the group would hand over weapons as a 'gesture of goodwill.”
Yet as it was the case following the PKK’s historic announcement that it would lay down arms and disband, this goodwill gesture is unlikely to lead to nationwide joy.
The process is being met with skepticism and the AKP is having a hard time convincing the Turkish public, which is adrift without any points of reference to trust.
Ironically, AKP is paying the price of eroding the respectability of several institutions in Turkey. People do not trust the press, academics or experts from think tanks.
While the army, the chief of general staff or the head of intelligence used to remain above politics and therefore enjoy some degree of credibility, they are no longer trusted. For many, their loyalty is to the president not to the nation.
By now it has become clear that the so-called peace process has been initiated to secure the support of the Kurds to enable Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to run for a third term.
If Erdoğan is betting on winning conservative votes by ending 40 years of terrorism, he is also counting on U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for his re-election. In this sense, the U.S. president is set to replace Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as the latter played an important role in the 2023 elections by twice postponing natural gas payments, providing important economic and financial relief.
ERDOĞAN ENJOYS TRUMP’S RESPECT
Currently, Erdoğan is one of the few leaders in the world to enjoy the respect of Trump, who does not conceal his contempt for European leaders in particular.
Trump picks up the phone each time Erdoğan calls him, and the Turkish president was one of the few leaders with whom Trump had a one-on-one meeting during the NATO summit.
Just like the NATO secretary-general who has fallen over himself to please Trump and shower him with praise, Erdoğan is extremely careful in his rhetoric especially on issues in which the two capitals stand on diametrically opposite sides, like Gaza or Iran.
No doubt, Trump would like to have Turkey’s support in establishing the new configuration in the Middle East. The clues to this new configuration are being revealed by the U.S. ambassador to Ankara who is also Trump’s envoy to Syria.
“Israel’s role will be reshaped,” said Tom Barrack in his recent interview with Anadolu News Agency. “And Turkey’s role will be important,” he added.
In the same interview, Barrack said he expected the S-400 problem and the F-35 issue to be solved by the end of the year. It goes without saying that the purchase of F-35s by Turkey cannot get a green light in Washington unless there is some degree of normalcy between Turkey and Israel.
There are reports that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the chief of national intelligence İbrahim Kalın are trying to convince Hamas to lay down arms once there is a ceasefire. If indeed there is a ceasefire, followed by Hamas’ statement that it will reject violence, this will open the way to a normalization between Israel and Turkey.
A White House photo opportunity that will end with the announcement that many of the stalemates in bilateral ties have been overcome will certainly boost Erdoğan’s domestic standing. Meanwhile, with Trump’s indifference to democratic backsliding, Erdoğan will continue to feel free to double down on the oppression of the opposition.
TOM ‘THE PHANTOM’ BARRACK
Next to Trump, Erdoğan’s biggest campaign supporter is set to be Tom Barrack. As he spends an important amount of his time in Syria, the envoy’s efforts to get the war-torn country on its feet will certainly help stop the decline in AKP popularity caused by Syrian migrants. However, there are reports that Barrack is preparing to meet Mazloum Abdi in person, a move that might anger Ankara, which lashed out at Biden’s envoy Brett McGurk when he met the leader of the YPG.
Nowhere to be seen in Ankara, the diplomatic corps has yet to meet this major regional player. Nicknamed Tom “The Phantom” Barrack by a European ambassador, he has twice declined a lunch invitation from his Western colleagues.
He was last seen in Izmir, proof that he does not like to spend time in Ankara. After he came to Turkey, he has also conducted talks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Amman. He travels frequently and has brought his private plane to Turkey, and parks it in Etimesgut military airport on the rare occasions he passes through Ankara.
