By Barçın Yinanç
Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger.
“We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.
To secure the financial backing from East to West, Turkey works with Syria’s current rulers to alleviate the concerns of both blocs.
The historic visit to Ankara on Jan. 15 of Syria’s foreign and defense ministers accompanied by the chief of intelligence was carefully calibrated to give the right messages to the international as well as the Turkish audience.
CALLS FROM THE BLUE HOMELAND LOBBY
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has so far been extremely cautious in his words on Syria. He must have been annoyed by the euphoric rhetoric among the pro-government circles who highlight the opportunities while underestimating the risks.
There have been calls from the “blue homeland” lobby to immediately sign a maritime agreement with Syria’s de facto rulers, whose signature, however, would be meaningless since they are a transitionary government.
A member of the presidential advisory board on international relations suggested signing a military agreement with the new regime in Syria as soon as possible to “secure legally” the presence of Turkish armed forces in Syrian territory, unaware (or aware) that this would give the message that Turkish soldiers are there to stay.
Signing a maritime agreement with Syria will require the recognition of the borders between the two countries. Yet Syria never accepted Antakya’s inclusion into Turkey in 1939. The region has always appeared within Syrian borders on Syrian maps. For example, the Assad regime never accepted Ankara’s demand for the renewal of the decaying demarcation stones on the 911 km long border as this would imply the recognition that Antakya belongs to Turkey.
Not only was a maritime agreement not mentioned during the press conference of Syrian and Turkish ministers, but the messages on military cooperation were moderate and limited to cooperation against terrorism.
“We have extensive experience in collaborating with third countries in the fight against terrorist organizations, and we aspire to establish similar cooperation with the new Syrian administration,” said Fidan.
Syria’s foreign minister was also moderate in his appraisals of Turkish support to Syria. Asaad Hassan al-Shibani spoke in Arabic although he did post-graduate studies in Turkey and won a doctoral degree from a university in Istanbul.
“Will Turkey be like an older brother to Syria,” a prominent Turkish journalist asked Fidan in a television interview.
“It has been a long time since we quit this type of definition,” Fidan replied, a message he reiterated many times during interviews to the Arab press alleviating the concerns of the regimes in the Arab world.
“We don’t want Turkey, Iran or any other country to dominate,” he keeps repeating, fully conscious that in order to secure the flow of Gulf money, Turkey should not appear to be the sole actor in Syria.
“The Arabs have the tendency to unite against non-Arabs,” recalled a Turkish diplomat. Fidan is trying to convince his Arab counterparts that the new regime in Damascus will not try to export the idea of regime change.
TURKISH-EU COOPERATION IN SYRIA
By the same token, Fidan is trying to convince Western powers that Damascus's new rulers will lead the country to an inclusive regime where the rights of the minorities will be respected. Ankara wants the lifting of the sanctions as soon as possible while it also wants European capitals to re-open their embassies.
Meeting with the EU ambassadors in Ankara on Jan. 14, Fidan presented a broader regional perspective. Saying that Syria historically connected the Middle East to Europe, he argued that the normalization of Syria will facilitate trade between Europe and the Far East.
“It is clear that Turkey wants to engage more with the EU on Syria, and it is also clear that compared with the U.S., Turkey and EU have more common concerns like migration,” a European ambassador told me.
“The EU will ease sanctions and our position on sanctions will be more generous than the U.S. decision. We are willing to pay, but not for the establishment of a caliphate in Damascus. But we know that Fidan cannot give such a guarantee,” said another.
The same envoy did underline that Europe expects Turkey to guarantee that the rights of the Syrian Kurds will not be jeopardized once the YPG agrees to lay down arms. But EU capitals are aware that when it comes to southeast Syria, it will be Trump calling the shots once he enters the White House on Jan. 20.
