By Barçın Yinanç
Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus.
No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”
But if the AKP revives their 2011 dreams, the country would face dire circumstances, according to an expert of international relations.
“We love the motto ‘one nation two states.’ This is not a motto applicable to Syria,” warned Professor Ahmet Kasım Han from Beykoz University, as some circles started to talk of Aleppo as Turkey’s 82nd province.
“If Turkey returns to its delusional mode of 2011, if what Turkey understands of reconstructing Syria means making the border wide open, and interfering in Syrian politics, Syria will become an internal issue, and the country’s economy, sociology and demography can no longer tolerate such a thing,” he told me.
Nevertheless, the head of the Turkish National Intelligence Agency İbrahim Kalın went to Damascus on Dec. 12 and was seen visiting the Umayyad Mosque in the Syrian capital. He prayed in the mosque, considered among the top five mosques in the Islamic world, and important both to Sunni and Shia Muslims. Ahmet Davutoğlu, who was foreign minister when the Syrian uprising started in 2011 and who is seen as the main mastermind behind Turkey’s involvement in the civil war by supporting rebel groups early on, was reported as pledging to pray in the Umayyad Mosque, implying a quick fall for the Assad regime. He did not object to these reports while he was in office. But in fact, it was President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a speech on Sept. 5, 2012, who had stated: “God willing, we will recite a Fatiha at the tomb of Saladin and also perform our prayers at the Umayyad Mosque.”
“Syria will not be Afghanistan but Turkey has already become Pakistan,” said retired Ambassador Şafak Göktürk, a former Turkish envoy to Cairo. The religious and ethnic diversity will make it hard for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, to dominate the process. As to Ankara’s relations with HTS, Göktürk believes the moment HTS took control of Hama after Aleppo, was the very moment Turkey started to lose its influence with the group. The more HTS consolidates its position, the less it will listen to Turkey.
BLINKEN IN ANKARA
Meanwhile, the situation remained tense in the north of the country due to skirmishes between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the YPG, the PKK’s Syrian wing. While the U.S. appears to have mediated between the two sides forcing the YPG to withdraw east of the Euphrates, the risk of escalation appears to have forced U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to urgently come to Turkey.
“The HTS offensive would not have taken place without a U.S. green light. The Biden administration is also taking steps to limit Trump’s room to maneuver both in terms of Russia but also in terms of Syria,” said Professor Han.
U.S. STANCE
“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, and the U.S. should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!” President-elect Donald Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, on Dec. 7, a day before Assad fled the country.
As if to openly contradict Trump, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander, Gen. Michael Eric Kurilla, visited American troops in Syria and met the leaders of the YPG in Rojava.
“Kurilla visited U.S. military commanders and servicemembers, as well as our Defeat-ISIS partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces, at several bases in Syria,” read a statement from CENTCOM, which oversees US troops in the Middle East.
HTS and the SNA can join forces and push YPG further east of the Euphrates to get hold of the oil and water resources in that region to get Syria up on its feet faster, according to Professor Han.
Washington could be convinced of such an understanding provided a dialogue starts between Ankara and YPG, Han said, pointing to recent domestic overtures for an opening to solve the Kurdish question.
The relations between Israel and Turkey will also be high on the agenda since Ankara officially condemned Israel for violating the 1974 Disengagement Agreement by advancing into Syrian territory.
Looking at how developments are unfolding with the fall of the Assad regime, many experts in Turkey agree Israel is coming out as the biggest winner while the Palestinians stand as one of the biggest losers, a situation to which Ankara will have to adjust.
