By Barçın Yinanç
Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa.
But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.
Whenever the occasion presented itself, Moscow tried to drive a wedge between Ankara and the West. Ankara found itself squeezed between Moscow and the West, trying to pursue a balancing act.
This has been especially the case during the war in Ukraine.
The fact that Turkey did not join the implementation of Western sanctions and the claims that Russia tried to bypass them via Turkey led to the questioning of Ankara’s loyalty as a trusted ally of the Western alliance.
Ironically, Washington’s loyalty as a credible ally is now being questioned, as Trump’s push for a quick peace deal with Russia, under terms that look to please Moscow, has shocked many in Europe.
With Russia-U.S. normalisation underway and the gap between the U.S. and Europe widening not only on Ukraine but on trade issues as well, Turkey could end up finding itself squeezed between the U.S. and Europe.
When the U.S. joined Russia to vote against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine on March 24, Turkey voted in favor together with the EU; not once but on both occasions as the first vote was followed by another vote on a separate resolution about the war.
Meanwhile, Trump’s announcement that a 25 percent tariff will be imposed on the EU as of April will also affect Turkey as the country is in a customs union with the EU.
Although Turkey wants to see the end of the war in Ukraine, it shares European concerns that a peace deal in line with Russian views will make Moscow more assertive.
ERDOĞAN’S CALL TO EU
Developments in Syria and Ukraine confirm that Europe needs Turkey, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Feb. 24, adding, “From economy to defense, from politics to international reputation, only Turkey can take Europe out of the stalemate it has fallen into.”
“Erdoğan’s condescending rhetoric towards Turkey is driving Europeans crazy, and European arrogance towards Turkey is making us crazy,” Soli Özel told me when reminded that Turkey is excluded from European meetings on how to adjust to Trump’s policies.
“In my view, Turkey’s stock market value, at least on defense issues, has grown ever since the Munich Security Conference. I am not sure such an aggressive U.S. is a reliable partner for Turkey or whether Turkey can safeguard its interests solely relying on the U.S. Turkey should tread carefully its diplomacy between the US and the EU. U.S. tariffs against the EU will also affect us. So we just cannot turn our back to Europe and say, deal with it,” said Özel, a prominent expert on international relations.
It is high time, according to Özel, for Turkey and Europe to leave aside condescending rhetoric and sit down and have a meaningful talk about common interests.
LAVROV IN ANKARA
The prospect of a possible rapprochement between Ankara and Europe might be one of the reasons why Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited Ankara on Feb. 24, on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine.
Lavrov spent minutes during the press conference in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart explaining how the U.K. stopped Ukraine from reaching a deal in April 2022 in Turkey.
Together with France, the U.K. remains committed to supporting Ukraine, even contemplating sending troops on the ground. Yet, while the U.K. is said to convene a defense summit in London on March 2, Turkish and British officials in Ankara remained silent on whether Turkey was invited to the summit.
Meanwhile, Lavrov also underlined the presence of U.S. forces in Syria while the question he was asked was actually about Russian bases. Recalling that the bases were near the oil wells in Syria, he said, “Americans used the resources of the Syrians to provoke Kurdish separatists and to finance the so-called statelet in the North East.” That was music to the ears of Ankara.
