Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made a high-profile, two-day visit to Russia, sitting directly across from President Vladimir Putin to signal stable bilateral ties amid speculation that Turkey was distancing itself from Moscow.
A surprising development could break the six-year impasse between Turkey and the United States over Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. According to diplomatic and defense sources, Moscow has proposed to take the systems back.
Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.