Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Despite weeks of public speculation, four senior diplomats based in Ankara tell Turkey in Depth that the question of US President Donald Trump's non-attendance of the NATO summit is off the table and preparations are well underway.
After Israeli forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters near Crete, detaining at least 20 Turkish nationals among approximately 175 activists on board, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan moved quickly on the diplomatic front, holding back-to-back calls with his Spanish and Greek counterparts.
In a rare diplomatic spat in the local language, the Russian and French diplomatic missions in Ankara traded barbs on social media over the ongoing war in Ukraine amid the war’s anniversary. The dispute, which drew attention from Turkish users, shifted from geopolitical accusations to historical insults and the use of emojis.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted not to attend the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-led Board of Peace in Washington — much like he previously declined to travel to Davos for the initiative’s launch — signaling a calibrated diplomatic balancing act. While Erdoğan is among the few leaders known to have a personal rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump, he refrained from participating in both events hosted by Trump. Instead, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represented Turkey on both occasions.
Fahrettin Altun, who was removed in July from the Directorate of Communications he founded and from his role at the Center for Combating Disinformation, is expected to be appointed Turkey’s ambassador to the Vatican, according to several diplomatic sources.
The interim Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have again agreed to extend a cease-fire in northern Syria by an additional 15 days, postponing the implementation of recent arrangements, as diplomatic engagement involving Turkey has intensified.
Turkey is seeking to position itself as a mediator between the United States and Iran as threats of attacks rise and diplomatic engagement intensifies, with the Turkish foreign minister set to host his Iranian counterpart in Istanbul on Jan. 30.
A surprising development could break the six-year impasse between Turkey and the United States over Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. According to diplomatic and defense sources, Moscow has proposed to take the systems back.
A new directive issued by Turkey’s Foreign Ministry is drawing criticism from within diplomatic circles, with several senior sources saying it undermines the long-standing merit-based promotion system of the diplomatic corps.
“Those trying to undermine ties between Türkiye and the Turkic world through manipulation will not succeed,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said finally, weeks, even months, after four Central Asian Republics accredited ambassadors to Greek Cyprus. While Ankara continues to argue for two separate states to solve the Cyprus issue, it remains unmoved by recent diplomatic setbacks.
The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment. Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12 sent shockwaves throughout Europe. “Everyone was expecting Trump to approach Putin; what shocked Europe was Trump’s positive attitude towards the Russian leader,” a Turkish diplomat told me.