Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
“Today marks the 111th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. As we honor the 1.5 million Armenians murdered by the Ottoman Empire across modern-day Turkey, Syria, and Armenia, we must refuse to let history repeat itself;” wrote Zohran Mamdani.
Following the consensus between Syria’s interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), momentum has returned to Turkey’s long-running efforts to end the decades-long armed conflict and address the Kurdish question through political and legal channels. This renewed dynamic has also pushed the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan back to the center of the political agenda.
The expected has happened. The “new peace process,” now more than a year old, has fallen under the shadow of Syria. Map-altering clashes between the new Damascus government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose backbone is formed by Kurds, have driven a wedge between the AKP-MHP ruling bloc and the DEM Party in Turkey.
An operation by the Syrian army targeting Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has fueled tensions in Ankara between the two main actors of Turkey’s peace process, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he remains optimistic for a resolution in the southern neighbor.
Developments in Syria are emerging as a potential block to Turkey’s push for Kurdish peace. With the March 10 Agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus nearing its implementation deadline, Ankara is increasing pressure for compliance.
The photos taken at the start of the new legislative year, in which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan posed with chairs of opposition parties, including AKP breakaways, in the absence of the CHP, revealed the contest between the AKP and the CHP to win their support. After the images went viral, Erdoğan renewed his call for a new constitution more forcefully, while his ally, MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli, insisted that the parliamentary commission visit PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in İmralı and urged Öcalan to call on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to lay down arms. The same day, slogans in Kurdish for Öcalan’s freedom — “Biji Serok Apo” — were chanted at the DEM Party’s group meeting. The party, which holds the third-largest number of seats in parliament, could significantly alter the political dynamics if it supports a constitutional change. While the photos of opposition figures with Erdoğan drew sharp criticism in the opposition media, concerned about alienating them, CHP Chair Özgür Özel personally called all opposition party chairs to ease the row.
At a time when the U.S. is mediating talks between Israel and Syria in London, the head of Turkish Intelligence İbrahim Kalın met with President Ahmed al‑Sharaa in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Following the suspension of the Paris talks by the Damascus government, the SDF, which advocates decentralized government in Syria, increased its activity in Raqqa, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, and along the Turkish border after holding a conference in Hasakah with prominent Druze and Alawite figures, Turkish state-owned Anadolu News Agency reported on Sept. 5.
Bilal Erdoğan, son of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and chair of the İlim Yayma Foundation, visited Syria on May 14 alongside a senior AKP delegation that included Deputy Chair and Head of Foreign Relations Zafer Sırakaya, parliamentary group deputy chair Abdulhamit Gül, and Gaziantep Mayor Fatma Şahin.
The US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack is under attack in Turkey and the United States for saying Middle East countries require “strong leadership.”
The Middle East is no longer simmering — it is boiling over. The genocide being carried out in Gaza, the attacks on the West Bank, the incursion into Syria, and the devastating assault on Lebanon have cemented one uncomfortable truth that much of the world is now willing to state openly: Israel has become the primary driver of instability in the region.
While Ankara is seeking to strengthen its ties with the Washington administration, U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack has dusted off an old project aimed at transforming Turkey and Syria into a hub for energy security as an alternative to the Persian Gulf, caught in the crossfire for a month.