Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The postponement of the decision in the lawsuit to cancel the CHP's 38th regular congress brought short-term relief to the markets. The BIST 100 index gained 5% following the decision. The banking index also gained over 6%. The risk premium reached 261 basis points, the lowest in about six months.
Turkey’s main opposition party, the CHP, is set to hold an extraordinary congress on Sept. 21, after more than 900 delegates submitted signatures to Ankara’s Çankaya District Election Board on September 5. The move comes amid a growing legal standoff that has rocked the party’s Istanbul branch. Among the signatories, the 196 Istanbul delegates suspended by court order were not included.
September was expected to be tough for the CHP due to ongoing investigations and trials—but no one expected a storm of this magnitude. Having fought operations targeting its municipalities for the past nine months, the CHP is now shaken by the court decision that appointed a “trustee” to its Istanbul congress. CHP members, calling this a “new judicial coup,” saw the move as the extension of operations against municipalities into the party itself. Speculation has grown that a trustee could also be appointed to the party headquarters in the coming days.
Turkey’s main opposition CHP suffered a fresh blow as a court dissolved its largest provincial board in Istanbul over cash payment claims. The party now awaits either a Sept. 5 ruling by the Supreme Election Board (YSK) or a Sept.15 court hearing that could unseat Chair Özgür Özel’s administration. The CHP, which came to power at a November 2023 congress with the slogan “Change,” now risks being replaced by the team of former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The 45th Civil Court of First Instance ruled that irregularities in the October 2023 Istanbul provincial congress were “approximately proven.” The court suspended provincial chair Özgür Çelik, the executive and disciplinary boards, and 196 delegates. Attention has now turned to another court set to review the CHP’s 2023 congress in Ankara. “The Istanbul decision is null and void. We do not recognize it,” said Özel, vowing not to hand over CHP’s Istanbul building to the appointed administration. The Istanbul administration also started a stage-in protest in front of the building for 24 hours.
Following the cancellation on Sept. 2 of the CHP Istanbul Provincial Congress, losses on the Istanbul Stock Exchange exceeded 5% within the day. The banking index dropped by more than 8% before rebounding.
A new front has been opened in the judicial assault on the main opposition CHP, shifting the focus from Istanbul to the party’s stronghold in Izmir. The latest set of raids came as Izmir fought off forest fires and as the CHP prepared to hold a major rally in Saraçhane—home to Istanbul's Municipality—marking the 100th day of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s pre-trial detention. They also followed hard on the heels of a court hearing that could have annulled the party’s 2023 congress.
A lawsuit seeking to annul the results of the CHP’s 2023 congress—based on allegations that delegates were bribed—has triggered a renewed power struggle between current Chair Özgür Özel and his predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
t has been seven months since MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli extended a hand to DEM Party members, and two months since PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called on his organization to lay down arms. The PKK, which announced it would comply with the call, made its first request for Öcalan to be allowed to communicate with the organization in order to hold a dissolution congress. However, no concrete progress has been made on this request, which requires government action. This has led some to ask if the process is stalling or whether there is a problem between the AKP and the MHP.