Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Around 150 Turkish activists and four opposition deputies joined the Global Sumud Flotilla, which set sail from Tunisia on Sept. 4 to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. Saadet Party MPs Necmettin Çalışkan and Mehmet Atmaca, Hüda-Par’s Faruk Dinç, and Gelecek Party’s Sema Silkin Ün took part, while no AKP deputies joined.
Turkey and France, NATO allies and regional heavyweights, are locked in a relationship best described as a cocktail of competition, cooperation, and confrontation. Despite shared interests in trade and global security, Ankara and Paris appear increasingly out of step on strategic and ideological matters even as flashpoints multiply.
As the dust settles from the economic shocks of the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the breakdown of traditional supply chains, a new global order is taking shape—one where economic policy is no longer just about growth and trade but about power, resilience, and survival. Amid this transformation, Turkey stands at a crossroads: a country historically anchored to the West but increasingly drawn to non-Western alignments, and now forced to choose a direction in a fractured world.
Former HDP Co-Chair Mithat Sancar described the government’s “Terror-Free Turkey” initiative as unique, “a process that differs from global conflict resolution practices. If successful, it will enter the world’s academic literature,” he said.
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to shake the global economy and wreak havoc. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries on April 9, letting markets soar after days of economic turmoil, he decided to hit China with further tariffs of an unprecedented 125%. There is no question that this will deepen the trade war with China. Regardless of the tariff pause, all major countries are still reflecting on worst-case scenarios. It is highly disputable whether President Trump will achieve his declared goal of striking fair and balanced trade deals with America’s partners. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and tariffs will be mutually lowered to reasonable levels through negotiations. However, given President Trump’s dithering, there is nothing but turmoil and chaos to be expected on the horizon.
Turkey, a major fossil fuel importer, will walk a fine line as Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sees the U.S. reviving its “energy dominance” policy—a policy widely anticipated to disrupt global energy dynamics. Characterized by ramping up fossil fuel production and expanding energy exports, the restored agenda, now under the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a prominent figure in the petroleum industry, will double down on fossil fuels, reversing the Biden administration’s renewable energy priorities.
Only some people, apart from the experts and those involved with the energy sector, are aware that Turkey has quietly joined the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a Western cooperation platform on essential minerals. Critical minerals have become the new frontline of the rivalry between China and the US. China has a global monopoly on the production (70%) and processing (90%) of rare-earth elements (REEs).