Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The Defense Ministry has completed its investigation into the deaths of 12 soldiers who were exposed to methane gas in a cave in northern Iraq during a search operation on July 6, concluding that there was no evidence of negligence or misconduct on the part of the commanders involved in the incident.
CHP Chair Özgür Özel said he has evidence that some prosecutors and lawyers pressured defendants in the Istanbul Municipality cases to falsely confess to paying bribes in exchange for release. The following day, lawyer Mehmet Yıldırım was detained on the orders of the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office.
The dissolution and disarmament of the PKK, so far managed through security institutions, will be brought to Parliament’s agenda next week through a newly established commission. Although framed as “above politics” and “beyond party interests,” the “process” is creating new political maneuvering room for all parties. From the government to the opposition, political actors are repositioning themselves and recalculating strategies with an eye on the 2028 elections.
Gökalp İçer, chair of cryptocurrency exchange platform ICRYPEX, was arrested on charges of drug trafficking and attempted murder.
Twelve Turkish soldiers died from gas exposure in a PKK-used cave in northern Iraq on July 6, and two more from excessive fluid loss in Hatay on July 25, but key questions about both incidents remain unanswered.
As of July 31, all parties represented in Turkish Parliament—except the İYİ Party—have appointed members to join the parliamentary commission on the Kurdish issue, ending debates over which parties would take seats. Attention now turns to the commission’s roadmap, including its official name, agenda, timeline, and decision-making rules. The İYİ Party’s decision to abstain from participation has complicated the calculation of an absolute majority. While Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş initially announced that the commission would have 51 members, the İYİ Party’s absence reduces the number to 48, raising debate over whether the three-fifths majority should be calculated based on 51 or 48 members.
MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli joined the newly launched social media platform Next Sosyal, developed by Baykar Chair Selçuk Bayraktar, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s son-in-law.
Enis Güçlü Şirin, the trustee appointed to İmamoğlu İnşaat—the family business of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—holds positions on the boards of more than 20 other companies. All the firms where Şirin serves are under the administration of Turkey’s Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) which operates firms that have been seized by the state often because of bankruptcy, tax debts, or links to the Gülenist movement.
The arithmetic in the Turkish Parliament is shifting rapidly, as party defections mount. Since the May 2023 elections, 35 lawmakers have resigned from their parties, significantly altering the composition of parliament. The İYİ Party has shrunk from 43 to 29 MPs; DEVA has dropped from 15 to 9; and Gelecek from 10 to 4. Of the defectors, 11 joined the AKP and 10 moved to the CHP. Fourteen now sit as independents.
After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.
Allegations of widespread cheating in Turkey’s national High School Entrance Exam (LGS) have triggered a political storm, with opposition figures accusing the Education Ministry of negligence and a cover-up, while Minister Yusuf Tekin has forcefully rejected the claims, using inflammatory language to discredit critics. More than a month after the exam, a senior official from the ministry has been dismissed.
After 47 years, the PKK has decided to disband and lay down arms. According to the group’s founder, Abdullah Öcalan, this marks a paradigm shift: the struggle will now continue through strengthened political engagement. Following what both the government and opposition have called a “historic” decision, change is now expected within the DEM Party—the Kurdish political movement’s representative in Turkish Parliament. As one MP who recently visited Öcalan on İmralı Island put it: “Even the PKK is changing—why wouldn’t the DEM Party?”