Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Russian and Ukrainian envoys in Ankara were warned not to wage their war in Turkish territory. The warning came as tensions in the Black Sea in the first half of December escalated to fresh peaks in the four-year-old war.
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said that the United States is close to lifting restrictions imposed on Turkey since 2017 after Turkey purchased S-400 systems from Russia. However, the conditions under which the sanctions will be lifted remain unclear.
Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met under the facilitation of United Nations Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, on Dec. 11. Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides reportedly agreed to expedite a series of confidence-building measures. Talks to resolve the decadeslong Cyprus issue are unlikely to gain traction before mid-2026, as both the north and south prepare for critical elections.
“Israel can claim it is a democracy … but in this region, whether you like it or not, what has worked best is a benevolent monarchy,” said Tom Barrack, speaking at the Doha Forum in the first week of December.
The newly released U.S. Strategic Security paper signals the most significant shift in American grand strategy since the end of the Second World War. Its defining features are the explicit identification of China as a peer competitor, the reaffirmation of Russia as a principal adversary, and—perhaps most striking—the retreat from the ideological mission that once sustained “the West” as a political and civilizational project.
The political parties represented in the parliamentary commission — tasked with supervising the Terror-Free Turkey initiative — have started submitting their reports to the speaker of Parliament. But both the governing bloc and the opposition appear far from agreeing on a common “solution law.”
In Turkish, rüzgâr begins as a simple meteorological fact: the wind that sweeps across the Bosphorus, bends Aegean olive trees and makes wildfires spread uncontrollably. Etymologically, it probably blows in from Persian, once meaning “time, fate, weather,” before narrowing into “wind.” But its real life is in metaphor: the wind that shifts fortune, tests patience, topples governments. In a language where song lyricists routinely confide in the breeze, it was only a matter of time before politicians started doing the same.
Tufan Erhürman, the newly elected president of Northern Cyprus, voiced guarded expectations ahead of his first trilateral meeting on Dec. 11 with Greek Cypriot figure Nikos Christodoulides and UN envoy María Ángela Holguín. Speaking to Turkish journalists, Erhürman said that shifting regional dynamics and a long record of unsuccessful rounds make a rapid return to substantive talks unrealistic — particularly without agreed-upon parameters.
Sözcü TV, which began broadcasting on March 1, 2023, has undergone a major management overhaul that resulted in a wave of layoffs and raised questions about a broader editorial shift at one of Turkey’s key opposition channels.
Turkey’s Minimum Wage Determination Commission is preparing for its first major structural overhaul in 50 years after unions said the current system blocks fair representation. The Labor Ministry has proposed an “interim formula” that would cut the government’s seats from five to one, reducing the 15-member body to 11 while keeping five worker and five employer representatives.
While Turkey and Iran were on opposite sides during the Syrian civil war, Israel's hostility to the new regime in Damascus appears to be pushing Ankara and Tehran closer as both define Israel as a threat to Syria’s stability.
Ukrainian naval drones struck two ships alleged to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea off the Turkish coast, increasing tension in the shared sea even as the combatants pursue renewed peace talks. The Sea Baby drones hit the oil tankers MT Kairos and MT Virat on Nov. 28. Russia has used hundreds of tankers known as the “shadow fleet” to evade Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, delivering millions of barrels of oil to buyers in breach of those restrictions.