Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released its Poverty and Living Conditions Statistics for 2025, showing a limited decline in the relative poverty rate while material deprivation and social exclusion remain widespread, meaning millions are unable to meet basic needs such as heating.
Turkey will grant visa-free entry to Chinese citizens for tourism and transit travel, following a presidential decree published in the Official Gazette.
The Constitutional Court has annuled a provision allowing the deferral of sentences for public officials convicted of torture or ill-treatment.
With the start of 2026, the future of the peace initiative on the Kurdish issue remains uncertain. The mandate of the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission, which includes representatives from all parliamentary parties except the İYİ Party, was extended by two months, and the commission has once again delayed finalizing its report, now expected in January.
The Turkish Air Force shot down a drone that entered Turkish airspace from the Black Sea on Dec. 15 but Ankara refused to identify it, although all indications point to Russia.
The CHP has unveiled its new shadow cabinet, touting it as the team that would govern Turkey if elected. However, the lineup has sparked backlash from left-wing critics over the dominance of business figures and center-right politicians occupying key posts. Despite advocating a return to the parliamentary system — where the executive is known as the Council of Ministers and members are elected, not appointed — the CHP has mirrored the presidential model by labeling its team a “cabinet” and appointing shadow cabinet members who are business figures active in the very sectors they oversee.
As the Peace Commission moves toward drafting its final document — and as legislation looms on the horizon — the key question is whether parliament can transform overlapping objectives into a shared roadmap, or whether the process will once again stall at the fault line between security-first sequencing and demands for democratic and political normalization.
Russian and Ukrainian envoys in Ankara were warned not to wage their war in Turkish territory. The warning came as tensions in the Black Sea in the first half of December escalated to fresh peaks in the four-year-old war.
The withdrawal of a secret witness’ testimony — and the prosecution’s disregard for that fact — in the Istanbul probe is raising questions about the credibility of the indictment against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP Chair Özgür Özel said. Newly released supplementary documents reveal serious contradictions in how secret witnesses were handled by prosecutors, although the government calls it “the largest corruption file of the century.”
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said that the United States is close to lifting restrictions imposed on Turkey since 2017 after Turkey purchased S-400 systems from Russia. However, the conditions under which the sanctions will be lifted remain unclear.
Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met under the facilitation of United Nations Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, on Dec. 11. Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides reportedly agreed to expedite a series of confidence-building measures. Talks to resolve the decadeslong Cyprus issue are unlikely to gain traction before mid-2026, as both the north and south prepare for critical elections.
“Israel can claim it is a democracy … but in this region, whether you like it or not, what has worked best is a benevolent monarchy,” said Tom Barrack, speaking at the Doha Forum in the first week of December.