Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

KUMAR
Inside Turkey Nov 15, 2024

KUMAR

Kumar (Gambling, noun) derives from Arabic and is forbidden in Islam, as spelled out in Surah al-Maidah of the Quran, where gambling is condemned alongside wine and idolatry. The aim? To incite enmity, foster distraction, and veer Muslims away from prayer. Fast forward to modern-day, secular Turkey, where gambling has made headlines once more. This time, TV personality Mehmet Ali Erbil and pop singer Serdar Ortaç, notorious for their sketchy reputations, were busted for illegal betting. The outcome? House arrest—a promising move for Erbil, an alleged serial harasser.

Nazlan Ertan
TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 15, 2024

TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN

When Hakan Fidan addressed the 14th conference of the ambassadors in August 2023, two months after he was appointed as foreign minister, the message was clear to those present in the hall.  Having led the Turkish Intelligence Agency for 13 years, it became clear from Fidan’s address that foreign policy would be shaped and implemented from a security perspective. While this might not present an abnormality as the world is becoming highly insecure, Fidan took office at a time when Turkey was seeking to normalize its relations with many of its neighbors.

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KAYYUM
Word of the Week Nov 8, 2024

KAYYUM

Kayyum or Kayyım (trustee, noun) often crops up on the Turkish agenda like an unwelcome ex-chief at a political celebration. The English-language media has translated it as trustee, as in “Turkey sacked three mayors in the Kurdish-majority southeast on alleged 'terrorism' charges and replaced them with trustees.” But as with most things, context is key. The word is actually an exalted name in Islamic theology, describing an attribute of God: the eternal, self-sustaining one, who maintains all existence. The term implies omniscience and omnipotence—qualities far removed from the bureaucratic function of trustee appointments. In more everyday language, it’s also a term for a mosque custodian. But lately, Turkey’s government has repurposed the term, applying it to officials appointed to oversee (or seize) the operations of private companies, foundations, and -mostly- municipalities suspected of wrongdoing. It should not be confused with a guardian (vasi), whose role implies that the person they care for is legally incapable of managing their own affairs. Tanıl Bora, master of Turkish political terms, explains: “A guardian is appointed to a person, a kayyum to property.”

Nazlan Ertan
IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 1, 2024

IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?

For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.

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ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?
Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

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İMAM NİKAHI
Word of the Week Nov 1, 2024

İMAM NİKAHI

İmam nikahı, or dini nikah (religious wedding), has long been a battleground for women’s rights activists who strongly oppose religious marriage and support strict penalties for imams and muftis (Muslim clergy) who conduct religious unions without first ensuring that the couple has undergone a civil ceremony. Turkey’s laws on marriage are regulated by the 1926 Civil Code, which abolished polygamy, introduced civil marriage, and mandated that any religious ceremony—should citizens of the newly established secular state choose to hold one—must follow civil registration in a municipal office. In villages, chieftains (elected officials) conduct the ceremony, while consular officers perform civil ceremonies for Turks abroad. Under the 1926 laws, religious officers—whether imams, priests, or rabbis in Turkey’s multi-faith society— had no authority to perform official weddings, as they cannot verify the legal requirements, such as the age of the would-be spouses or whether they are already married.

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JOINING BRICS IS EASIER SAID THAN DONE
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 25, 2024

JOINING BRICS IS EASIER SAID THAN DONE

Only some people, apart from the experts and those involved with the energy sector, are aware that Turkey has quietly joined the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a Western cooperation platform on essential minerals. Critical minerals have become the new frontline of the rivalry between China and the US. China has a global monopoly on the production (70%) and processing (90%) of rare-earth elements (REEs).

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İP
Word of the Week Oct 25, 2024

İP

İp (noun, rope, as in noose) made a dramatic entrance into Turkey’s political lexicon this week when the İyi Party’s new-ish leader, Müsavat Dervişoğlu, hurled a noose at MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli. This came in response to Bahçeli’s suggestion that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan could be granted certain privileges—potentially even addressing Parliament—if he were to publicly call for the PKK’s dissolution. (For details, see last and this week’s Deep Dive.)

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CHANGE OR CONTINUITY IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 18, 2024

CHANGE OR CONTINUITY IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s upcoming visit to Athens comes at a moment of some confusion about Turkey’s relations with Greece. The status of bilateral ties came under scrutiny after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece on the sidelines of annual UN summit in New York in September.

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CYPRUS TALKS: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU EXPECT NOTHING
Erospolis Oct 18, 2024

CYPRUS TALKS: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU EXPECT NOTHING

NICOSIA—The New York dinner hosted by UN Secretary-General António Guterres for Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart Ersin Tatar managed to bring the two leaders together around a table, but reunification still seems a very distant prospect. “There wasn’t much on the menu,” quipped Tatar, speaking to Turkish journalists, including Turkey in Depth, in Nicosia after his return to the island. “Guterres himself said the main advantage of the meal at the UN headquarters was the view. I told him the view from the Turkish House [the headquarters of multiple Turkish diplomatic missions in the Big Apple] was far better.”

Editorial Team
WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 11, 2024

WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN

When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.

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