By Barçın Yinanç
Donald Trump won the presidential elections just as Turkey witnessed a new wave of elected mayors being replaced by trustees.
A leader who threatens retribution against his political enemies will be ruling one of the world’s supposedly most democratic countries.
Facing a political ban, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, one of the strongest presidential candidates, must have been unhappy to hear the news about Trump’s victory.
So the very acute consequence of Trump’s return to the White House will be the consolidation of authoritarian rule in Turkey.
Those in the presidential palace must have mixed feelings at the news. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will no doubt see an opportunity in Trump’s disdain for institutions and preference for direct dialogue between leaders. It is no surprise that Erdoğan was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump on the phone. Yet, due to the several crises during the first Trump administration, there must be cautious optimism in Ankara.
EUROPEAN FRONT: SEARCH FOR STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
A Trump administration entails risks and opportunities for Turkey. On the European front, no doubt Trump’s condescending attitude towards NATO and his request for the Europeans to take their defense into their own hands will speed up the search for strategic autonomy.
As the country with the second-biggest army in NATO, Turkey will find that European efforts to step up defense should provide an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Europe. For that, France has to stop its strategy of excluding Turkey from the European defense architecture. If not, Turkey risks becoming a marginalized NATO country in European defense mechanisms. Still, France’s hostility to Turkey is not the only problem. Germany is in a political crisis and Europe remains divided. This could strengthen the hands of those in Ankara who believe in distancing from the West and forging fluid alliances with regional and global actors such as Russia and China.
Yet, some are also aware that Turkey’s anchor to the West is a necessary counterbalance against Russia.
Trump’s stated policy to end all wars, including the war in Ukraine, will be seen as an opportunity for Erdoğan to start a good working relationship with Trump. He would offer to facilitate peace negotiations. Yet, Turkey is facing a dilemma. It wants to see the end of the war. But if Russia were to come out of peace negotiations with boosted confidence, that could further complicate its difficult relationship with Moscow.
U.S. POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ AND SYRIA
When it comes to the Middle East, things will get much more complicated. Turkey’s hostility towards the Netanyahu government will complicate dialogue with Trump. In addition, how Israel will continue its assault on Iran and its effects on Iraq and Syria will require Turkey to pursue delicate balancing acts between Washington and Moscow.
No doubt Israel will have carte blanche on its strategy of dealing a serious blow to Iran.
The U.S. is discussing withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, according to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan who said, “They don’t want to keep military presence in Iran’s zone of influence. Their presence renders them open to attack.”
Turkey and Iran are in a regional rivalry in both Iraq and Syria. On the face of it, Israel’s attacks weakening Iran and its regional proxies would appear to be in favor of Turkey’s interests. Also, on paper, Turkey wishes the U.S. to withdraw, especially from Syria, which would facilitate its assault on the YPG, seen as the PKK’s Syrian wing.
Yet, well aware of the wreckage left behind by the U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the possible next moves against Tehran by Netanyahu who even spoke about regime change in Iran ring alarm bells in Ankara. A manageable rivalry with Tehran might be preferable to the risk of an all-out war if Israel’s attack on Iran were to unleash all the destructive forces in the region.
A SOLUTION TO S-400?
If Trump were to decide to resort to Turkey’s good offices on the war in Ukraine, this might also lead to some resolution of the S-400 problem with the consent of the Kremlin. With Congress under Republican control, Trump will be able to overcome any resistance from an anti-Turkish lobby to retract the sanctions.
The other headache in relations, the U.S. support to the YPG, can also take a different turn during Trump’s second term. Negotiations between Putin and Trump who might decide to leave Syria under the zone of Russian influence will have consequences for the YPG. No doubt it will be easier for Trump to “sell out” the YPG, a prospect obstructed by the Pentagon so far. Would that possibility lead YPG to strike an agreement with Damascus and how all these possibilities affect normalization with Bashar Assad so much sought after by Ankara?
Different scenarios will have to be on the table. The crucial question would be this: Will Erdoğan prioritize the national interests of the Turkish nation? Or will he prioritize his survival? As the second will prevail, no doubt Erdoğan will use all the uncertainties and chaos that the world faces under Trump to strengthen itself on the domestic front.
Not only will he use the chaos, especially in the Middle East, to pursue unlawful action against his opponents, but he will also try to convince the broader electorate that he and only he can sail the boat in the stormy waters. He would resonate with U.S. 47th president’s campaign motto: “I alone can fix it.”
