Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

CASUS
Word of the Week Oct 31, 2025

CASUS

In Turkish, casus is the spy who slips through keyholes and whispers down telephone lines. In Ottoman Turkish, the word appears as câsûs, borrowed from Arabic, and, under Sultan Abdülhamid II’s watchful reign, it had a cousin, hafiyye, the “secret investigator” who made surveillance an imperial art.

Nazlan Ertan
EKREM İMAMOĞLU: “NOT TOMORROW, NOW”
Portrait of the Week Oct 31, 2025

EKREM İMAMOĞLU: “NOT TOMORROW, NOW”

We’ve borrowed the headline from a famous Turkish pop song of the 1970s, “Çilli Bom Bom.” One verse goes: “Don’t leave today’s work for tomorrow / Seize the moment, don’t hesitate / The world turns fast, life is short / Tomorrow won’t do—it has to be now.” Ekrem İmamoğlu could be said to be “impatient.” Like in the song, he’s in a hurry. But to explain this as a mere character trait would be insufficient. Some attribute his impatience to being from Trabzon — in other words, a typical Black Sea temperament — but geography alone cannot explain it either.

Anonymous
A NEW TONE, OLD REALITIES, AND A HARD ROAD AHEAD IN CYPRUS
Guest Voices Oct 31, 2025

A NEW TONE, OLD REALITIES, AND A HARD ROAD AHEAD IN CYPRUS

The election of Tufan Erhürman as president of Northern Cyprus rekindled hopes for renewed negotiations with the Greek Cypriots.Erhürman’s opening statements — stressing democratic tolerance, representation and the need to reopen talks under UN auspices with political equality as his “red line” — set a constructive tone: “There are no losers in this election. The Turkish Cypriot people won, our children won, our brotherhood won.” Yet those words of unity sit alongside firm warnings: political equality cannot be treated as a bargaining chip, and any new process must have meaningful limits and commitments from the outset.

Guest Voices
STARMER’S $10.7 BILLION JET DEAL AND MERZ’S EU MESSAGE: DIFFERENT TACTICS, SAME DISTANCE
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 31, 2025

STARMER’S $10.7 BILLION JET DEAL AND MERZ’S EU MESSAGE: DIFFERENT TACTICS, SAME DISTANCE

Nearly a decade after the migration deal that was signed between the EU and Turkey under the leadership of Germany, the arrangement that succeeded in stopping migrants entering Europe via Turkey remains the backbone of the transactional relationship between Ankara and Berlin. However, although Turkey continues to be seen as a buffer zone stopping the migration flows, there is also a renewed discovery among European capitals of the country’s value as a strategic asset.

Barçın Yinanç
TRAINING FOR SYRIAN MILITARY STARTS
Security and Defense Oct 31, 2025

TRAINING FOR SYRIAN MILITARY STARTS

Training for Syrian military forces by the Turkish Army has begun in accordance with the Joint Training and Advisory MoU signed between the two countries on Aug. 13, the Defense Ministry announced.

Editorial Team
THREE DECADES IN THE MAKING: ALTAY TANK FINALLY ROLLS OUT
Security and Defense Oct 31, 2025

THREE DECADES IN THE MAKING: ALTAY TANK FINALLY ROLLS OUT

The first Altay tank was delivered to the army on Oct. 28, crowning a three-decade push to develop and produce a domestic main battle tank. The project, launched by a 1996 decision of the Defense Industry Executive Committee, aimed to build an indigenous tank using locally developed technologies. However, the finalized model relies on South Korean-made engines and transmission systems.

Editorial Team
$10.7 BILLION FIGHTER DEAL WITHOUT CONCRETE DETAILS
Security and Defense Oct 31, 2025

$10.7 BILLION FIGHTER DEAL WITHOUT CONCRETE DETAILS

Following lengthy negotiations, an agreement for Turkey to procure 20 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 fighter jets from the UK was signed in Ankara on Oct. 27. Turkey will increase the number of aircraft in its Eurofighter fleet to 44 by procuring 12 second-hand Typhoons each from Qatar and Oman. The $10.7 billion (£8 billion) payment to the U.K. under the agreement has become a subject of debate in Turkish domestic politics, as the details of the package were not announced.

Editorial Team
REPUBLIC DAY MARKED BY NEW POLITICAL ALIGNMENTS AND ABSENTEES
Inside Turkey Oct 31, 2025

REPUBLIC DAY MARKED BY NEW POLITICAL ALIGNMENTS AND ABSENTEES

Turkey marked the 102nd anniversary of the Republic with fresh signs of political realignment — reminiscent of the symbolic gestures seen during Parliament’s opening earlier this month. While the chairs of Gelecek Party and DEVA Party, both breakaway movements from the AKP, attended the Presidential Palace reception for the first time, the MHP opted to stay away. Talks on a possible merger among conservative parties are also ongoing.

Editorial Team
CHP’S WAR FOR POWER: NEW FRONTS ON EVERY SIDE
Capital Currents Oct 24, 2025

CHP’S WAR FOR POWER: NEW FRONTS ON EVERY SIDE

With the “change” endorsement from Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Özgür Özel became CHP chair and will mark his second year in office in just ten days. Many see this as the “most difficult two years” in the party’s 102-year history, as policies were revised and key positions changed. While also battling lawsuits to annul its congress and ongoing operations against municipalities, the CHP seems poised to fight on new fronts—starting with the possible lifting of parliamentary immunities—as the election calendar nears.

Nergis Demirkaya