Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
An operation by the Syrian army targeting Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has fueled tensions in Ankara between the two main actors of Turkey’s peace process, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he remains optimistic for a resolution in the southern neighbor.
Following the suspension of the Paris talks by the Damascus government, the SDF, which advocates decentralized government in Syria, increased its activity in Raqqa, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, and along the Turkish border after holding a conference in Hasakah with prominent Druze and Alawite figures, Turkish state-owned Anadolu News Agency reported on Sept. 5.
As negotiations between Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stalled following the loss of two Aleppo neighborhoods from its control, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the Syrian government would take steps to exercise its sovereign right to ensure unity and order within the country if needed.
Following the PKK’s decision to lay down arms, the newly launched “peace process” has become tangled up in tensions over Syria. The military operation by the Damascus regime that pushed the SDF/YPG out of two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has strained relations between the AKP–MHP alliance and the DEM Party, ending a cautious rapprochement as part of the process. It has also disrupted a positive atmosphere that had lasted for nearly a year, raising fresh doubts about the prospects of success.
A dangerous escalation has erupted between Damascus forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in two strategically important neighborhoods of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo. As clashes intensified, evacuation notices, issued Dec. 8. by Syria’s central government in the two key districts, have raised the possibility of a military operation. Simultaneously, the Defense Ministry said that Turkey would support an expected Syrian army operation in Aleppo “if requested.”
Amid renewed clashes between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led militia in Aleppo, the Turkish Defense Ministry said that the Turkish army would support the operation if Damascus requested assistance.
The collapse of the half-century-long Assad dynasty following the flight of Bashar Assad to Russia on Dec. 8, 2024 overjoyed pro-government circles here. Some even started to mention Aleppo as Turkey’s 82nd province, while the shares of cement and construction companies surged on the stock exchange.
Halep (Aleppo, proper name) touches Turkish hearts, minds, imagination, language and, of course, the political rhetoric in a way few cities of the Ottoman Empire do. The southern jewel of the empire, the city has been a touchstone of trade, culture, and storytelling. But, as far as your cheeky columnist is concerned, its true linguistic value lies in being the punchline in one of Turkey’s wittiest sayings: “Halep oradaysa arşın burada”—“If Aleppo is there, the yardstick is here.” This phrase is more than a geographic observation; it’s a challenge. Based on the oral tale of a man who claimed that back in his great days in Aleppo, he could leap just as high as one could imagine, it’s what you say to someone boasting about their impressive feats in far-off places. “Sure, we can no longer ask around in Aleppo,” it implies, “but let’s see how you measure up here, in the present, with evidence.” In other words, put up or shut up and do not expect us to be persuaded by tall tales.
The Syrian opposition's major advances in the last ten days, especially the capture of Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria, caught not only the international community off guard but also surprised Syrians themselves. The opposition launched Operation “Deterrence of Aggression” on Nov. 27 to end the regime’s attacks on its strongholds in northwest Syria and facilitate the return of at least one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their towns in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. These towns had been captured by the regime in 2020 in violation of the Astana Process agreed upon by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The operation successfully achieved its planned objectives within the first four days. However, everything that has occurred since then has been unplanned and unexpected.