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Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 30, 2026

ALIYEV DOUBLES DOWN AS ANKARA REMAINS OVERLY CONCILIATORY

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, declined President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s invitation to attend the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, scheduled for the day after Turkey’s Republic Day, marking one of the biggest crises in the two countries' close relationship. Despite Ankara’s visible steps to defuse the recent tension, his refusal to come on a date carrying symbolic importance for Turkey attests to the changing dynamics in the relationship since the military victory over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.

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The Third Desk Oct 22, 2026

COP31 AND THE STORY OF TWO INVITATIONS

Next month Antalya hosts COP31, Nov. 9-20. Ankara has sent two invitations to Cyprus: one, through the conference organizers, to the president of the Republic of Cyprus, and one, from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Can Öztaş 4 min

Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 3, 2025

FINDING THE RIGHT BALANCE BETWEEN DETERRENCE AND PROVOCATION IN THE BLACK SEA

When a European expert based in Bulgaria received an invitation to a conference in Tbilisi, he decided to take the maritime route, boarding the ferry from Burgaz to Batumi. At one stage of the 64-hour crossing, while sailing in the open sea, the ferry shut its transponder and turned off its lights. A Russian fuel tanker approached and docked with the ferry to provide fuel to the ship, which is mainly used by trucks. The expert later found out that Russia sold the fuel 30 to 40 percent less than the market price. The captain of the ferry confessed he had all the official documents proving that the fuel was purchased from Romania.

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