Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
With the start of the new legislative year on Oct. 1, the main agenda will be the ongoing peace process concerning the Kurdish issue, which faces gridlock about the timing of demands over disarmament, legal guarantees, and the official status of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
The Trump administration has handed NATO allies a list of questions within the framework of an ongoing six-month Pentagon review of American forces in Europe.
The new legislative year of the Turkish Parliament opened without the CHP, which boycotted the session in protest at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the ongoing crackdown—starting debate over parliamentary legitimacy. Erdoğan swiftly countered the criticism, declaring that “legitimacy comes from the people.” He followed his remarks with a symbolic gesture: shaking hands with all parliamentary group leaders, including first-time photo-ops after many years with the heads of AKP offshoots DEVA and the Gelecek Party. Notably, Erdoğan coolly used his address to tell the pro-Kurdish DEM Party that the next phase on the Kurdish issue will be implementation. Praising the work of the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission for holding 12 meetings so far with broad participation from political parties, Erdoğan said, “Once the commission completes its work, we will undoubtedly have very important findings in hand. The next phase will be the implementation of the proposals raised within the commission, as a result of consultation and consensus.”
The CHP has received a brief reprieve from ongoing legal turmoil as a lawsuit seeking to annul its 38th Ordinary Congress—held on November 4–5, 2023—was postponed to Oct. 24. The delay offers the party a short breathing space. Now it is preparing for a new extraordinary congress on Sept. 21 that might address some of the legal challenges it faces. But the crackdown against CHP municipalities is pressing on. In the latest development, Bayrampaşa Mayor Hasan Mutlu became the 12th CHP mayor arrested in Istanbul—and the 18th nationwide—since the crackdown began in October 2024.
Although NATO remains the cornerstone of Turkey’s security architecture and the European Union still accounts for roughly half of its foreign trade, Ankara’s relationship with Beijing has become increasingly complex, strategic, and — in many respects — inevitable.
Amid renewed calls for unity during the ongoing peace efforts with the PKK, and following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent emphasis on solidarity among Turks, Kurds, and Arabs, MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli has confirmed reports that he proposed appointing two vice presidents—one Kurdish and one Alevi—in a closed-door party meeting.
Turkey shows signs of renewing its ties with its NATO alliance partners amid the ongoing Iran crisis. The renewal of vows follows a tempestuous period in its relations not only with the U.S. but also with NATO following the acquisition of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. Particularly over the past 20 years, facing U.S. CAATSA sanctions and Europe’s covert arms embargoes in the fight against the PKK, Turkey’s government and opposition have both questioned the value of NATO membership.
Following the appointment of trustees to companies linked to Can Holding, including major media outlets, two senior figures in the ongoing investigation have been released under house arrest.
In a rare diplomatic spat in the local language, the Russian and French diplomatic missions in Ankara traded barbs on social media over the ongoing war in Ukraine amid the war’s anniversary. The dispute, which drew attention from Turkish users, shifted from geopolitical accusations to historical insults and the use of emojis.
The television drama industry is facing an unprecedented crisis as soaring inflation and domestic regulatory pressures threaten its global standing, alongside suppressive measures, including the detention of manager Ayşe Barım and the ongoing detentions in a drug and prostitution case that has labeled many figures from the sector.
Legal pressure on the main opposition CHP continued as allegations of drug use were expanded to include relatives of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s wife, while prosecutors finalized a separate “political espionage” indictment against the imprisoned presidential candidate. At the same time, an Istanbul court ordered the release of a high-profile mayor held on corruption charges, marking a notable shift in the broader judicial process. As a significant development in the ongoing corruption trials, the court ordered the release of Adana Mayor Zeydan Karalar, who had been in detention since July. Karalar became the first CHP mayor to be freed since the start of the Aziz İhsan Aktaş case on Jan. 27. Eight other employees of several municipalities were also released.
Turkey joined Damascus, welcoming the victory of Syrian government forces and the defeat of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which further strained the ongoing peace process. Tensions in the political arena rose after a Turkish flag was brought down during the DEM Party’s group meeting in the border town of Nusaybin, neighboring Qamishli. The name of the person who brought down the Turkish flag was not shared by the government, but an investigation was launched, while the DEM Party described the incident as a provocation, recalling similar instances from the past.