Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Questions about the future of Turkey-Armenia normalization have grown after Turkish Foreign Ministry removed key wording from its statement on Armenian elections, putting pressure on Armenia rather than also pushing Azerbaijan and it took President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan four days to congratulate the Armenian prime minister on his election win.
As Armenia heads toward the pivotal June 7 elections — widely seen as critical for the continuity of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s peace agenda — Turkey has accelerated the normalization process, while Russia has intensified pressure on Yerevan through sanctions.
One of the most concrete steps yet in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia—launched in 2021—has been taken with a move toward direct trade between the two countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is heading into a June 7 election widely seen as a vote of confidence on his parallel agendas of steering the country toward the West while pursuing peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Öncü Keçeli announced on X on May 13 that bureaucratic preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia had been completed as of May 11.
My wicked editor and I have been on the phone constantly the last three days to exchange ideas on just what the word of the year should be. We toyed with “secret witness,” “active repentance” (read ratting out), “strategic autonomy,” “voice of the streets,” “angst,” and “normalization.” Finally, I used a columnist’s initiative and settled for meşruiyet, or legitimacy, over normalleşme/normalization.
Turkey and Armenia appear closer to normalization, with the launch of direct flights by Turkish Airlines and plans to open border gates. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he expects tangible progress “within a short period” on reopening long-closed land borders and increasing flights between Istanbul and Yerevan.
Turkey’s main opposition party is recalibrating its political strategy, reviving a discourse of 'normalization' in a calculated bid to dismantle the country’s deep-seated polarization and lure voters from the governing alliance.
As the Peace Commission moves toward drafting its final document — and as legislation looms on the horizon — the key question is whether parliament can transform overlapping objectives into a shared roadmap, or whether the process will once again stall at the fault line between security-first sequencing and demands for democratic and political normalization.
Hakan Aran, head of İş Bank, the country’s largest private lender, said they expect Turkey’s annual inflation to drop to 29% by the end of 2025, with interest rates falling to 35%. Aran shared his predictions regarding the economic normalization process at a press conference. According to Aran, “we may see monthly inflation rates drop below 1% as the normalization process begins in May 2026.”