Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

SIGNALS OF A MARRIAGE RENEWAL WITH NATO
Security and Defense Apr 3, 2026

SIGNALS OF A MARRIAGE RENEWAL WITH NATO

Turkey shows signs of renewing its ties with its NATO alliance partners amid the ongoing Iran crisis. The renewal of vows follows a tempestuous period in its relations not only with the U.S. but also with NATO following the acquisition of the S-400 air defense system from Russia. Particularly over the past 20 years, facing U.S. CAATSA sanctions and Europe’s covert arms embargoes in the fight against the PKK, Turkey’s government and opposition have both questioned the value of NATO membership.

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S-400 DECISION LOOMS IN U.S.-TURKEY DEFENSE RESET
Security and Defense Dec 12, 2025

S-400 DECISION LOOMS IN U.S.-TURKEY DEFENSE RESET

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said that the United States is close to lifting restrictions imposed on Turkey since 2017 after Turkey purchased S-400 systems from Russia. However, the conditions under which the sanctions will be lifted remain unclear.

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TANKERS ATTACKED IN BLACK SEA AFTER U.S. WARNING, DESPITE TURKEY’S CONCERNS
Foreign Affairs Dec 5, 2025

TANKERS ATTACKED IN BLACK SEA AFTER U.S. WARNING, DESPITE TURKEY’S CONCERNS

Ukrainian naval drones struck two ships alleged to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea off the Turkish coast, increasing tension in the shared sea even as the combatants pursue renewed peace talks. The Sea Baby drones hit the oil tankers MT Kairos and MT Virat on Nov. 28. Russia has used hundreds of tankers known as the “shadow fleet” to evade Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, delivering millions of barrels of oil to buyers in breach of those restrictions.

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U.S. SANCTIONS IMPACT AIRCRAFT PROJECTS
Security and Defense Oct 2, 2025

U.S. SANCTIONS IMPACT AIRCRAFT PROJECTS

The CAATSA sanctions imposed by the U.S. for the past six years have also negatively impacted Turkey's aircraft carrier projects.Originally designed to deploy F-35Bs, the first ship named TCG Anadolu was converted into an unmanned aerial vehicle carrier when aircraft could not be procured from the U.S.

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KAAN PROJECT HIT BY U.S. SANCTIONS
Security and Defense Oct 2, 2025

KAAN PROJECT HIT BY U.S. SANCTIONS

Trumpeting that Turkey is on the way to making its fighter jet Kaan, Turkey faced the reality that it was impossible to produce them by 2028, the expected election year, as promised to the public. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged that the future of the project depends on the U.S. Congress and U.S. CAATSA sanctions imposed on Turkey. Fidan’s goals and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s knowledge of the situation topped the agenda.

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PROMISES MADE, GAZA AVOIDED
Deep Dive Sep 25, 2025

PROMISES MADE, GAZA AVOIDED

The first meeting in six years between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House started with positive messages, as both refrained from directly addressing the issue of Gaza, on which they are at odds.Trump suggested the U.S. could lift sanctions on Turkey and allow it to buy U.S. F-35 jets, blocked due to Turkey’s procurement of S-400s from Russia, but added that he would like to see Turkey - a NATO member - stop buying Russian oil while the war in Ukraine continues. 'I'd like to have him stop buying any oil from Russia while Russia continues this rampage against Ukraine.'

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U.S. TARGETS IRANIAN OIL NETWORK OPERATING VIA TURKEY, UAE AND HONG KONG
Foreign Affairs Jul 14, 2025

U.S. TARGETS IRANIAN OIL NETWORK OPERATING VIA TURKEY, UAE AND HONG KONG

The United States has imposed sanctions on 22 entities linked to a shadow banking network accused of facilitating illicit oil trade on behalf of the Iranian regime. The network operates through front companies based in Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong, funneling revenue to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), the U.S. State Department announced on July 9.

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U.S. TARGETS IRANIAN OIL NETWORK OPERATING VIA TURKEY, UAE AND HONG KONG
Foreign Affairs Jul 11, 2025

U.S. TARGETS IRANIAN OIL NETWORK OPERATING VIA TURKEY, UAE AND HONG KONG

The United States has imposed sanctions on 22 entities linked to a shadow banking network accused of facilitating illicit oil trade on behalf of the Iranian regime. The network operates through front companies based in Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong, funneling revenue to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), the U.S. State Department announced on July 9.

Editorial Team