Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Who is back? Ümit Kocasakal. He won the election for president of the Istanbul Bar Association on Oct. 25, returning to the post he held from 2010 to 2016. And which slogan did he bring back with him? “We are the soldiers of Mustafa Kemal.” He and his supporters chanted it together after his victory.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, declined President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s invitation to attend the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, scheduled for the day after Turkey’s Republic Day, marking one of the biggest crises in the two countries' close relationship. Despite Ankara’s visible steps to defuse the recent tension, his refusal to come on a date carrying symbolic importance for Turkey attests to the changing dynamics in the relationship since the military victory over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.
Nikol Pashinyan’s election victory on June 7, his third in a row since 2018, confirmed the strong desire of the Armenian people to live in peace and prosperity in a functioning democracy as part of the Western World.
Following Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory in the presidential election with almost 63% of the vote in Northern Cyprus, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP)—which Erhürman formerly led—is preparing to take power in the upcoming general elections, expected by January 2026 at the latest. Sıla Usar İncirli, 54, the CTP’s new and first female chair, said that the party favors a federation model as part of the search for a solution in Cyprus, and they have begun drafting their government program.
Turkey joined Damascus, welcoming the victory of Syrian government forces and the defeat of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which further strained the ongoing peace process. Tensions in the political arena rose after a Turkish flag was brought down during the DEM Party’s group meeting in the border town of Nusaybin, neighboring Qamishli. The name of the person who brought down the Turkish flag was not shared by the government, but an investigation was launched, while the DEM Party described the incident as a provocation, recalling similar instances from the past.
Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.