Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
More than one and a half years into US President Donald Trump’s second term, despite repeated positive messages from both sides regarding lifting the arms embargo on Turkey, neither Ankara nor Washington has taken steps to meet their commitments.
Ankara has requested permission from Washington for the re-export of US-manufactured ammunition in its inventory to Ukraine.
The pause breaks in a week, as pauses always do: Washington and Riyadh strike Iraq anew.
While Ankara is seeking to strengthen its ties with the Washington administration, U.S. Ambassador to Ankara and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack has dusted off an old project aimed at transforming Turkey and Syria into a hub for energy security as an alternative to the Persian Gulf, caught in the crossfire for a month.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted not to attend the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-led Board of Peace in Washington — much like he previously declined to travel to Davos for the initiative’s launch — signaling a calibrated diplomatic balancing act. While Erdoğan is among the few leaders known to have a personal rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump, he refrained from participating in both events hosted by Trump. Instead, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan represented Turkey on both occasions.
In early November 2025, two gatherings revealed the evolving architecture of Eurasian energy and resource corridors: the “3+1” Energy Ministerial in Athens, bringing together Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the United States, and the C5+1 Summit in Washington between the United States and the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
It was already known that the questions posed to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on board the presidential plane were pre-prepared by the Directorate of Communications. Media Ombudsman Faruk Bildirici has revealed, with concrete evidence this time, what has been an open secret. Bildirici received the full text of the questions and answers long before the conversation took place on the plane taking Erdoğan and journalists back to Turkey from Washington.
“Turkish newspapers should do more than the Washington Post,” wrote Fatih Selek in pro-government daily Türkiye, recalling that the American newspaper published the names of nearly 20,000 children murdered in Gaza.
A few days after the new U.S. envoy to Germany took up office in Berlin in 2013, news broke out that Washington had been spying on German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s phone since 2002.
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.
For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.